Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kiyovu vs Bugesera - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Placide Aimee R.
Assist: Nsanzimfura K.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Kiyovu and Bugesera finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kiyovu.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Kiyovu
20%
Draws
40%
Bugesera
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Bugesera's 1.03 goals per match outpaces what Kiyovu have produced (0.97).
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Kiyovu taking it.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Kiyovu Clean Sheet 20%
Bugesera Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kiyovu Bugesera
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 12
Draws 11 4
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 0.97 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.59 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 15, 2026 Premier League
Kiyovu vs Bugesera
1:0
Mar 7, 2026 Premier League
Bugesera vs Kiyovu
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Premier League
Kiyovu vs Bugesera
0:0
May 27, 2025 Premier League
Bugesera vs Kiyovu
5:0
Oct 26, 2024 Premier League
Kiyovu vs Bugesera
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kiyovu Compare

Top Goalscorer Placide Aimee R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Bugesera Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kiyovu 36 / 100
Bugesera 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kiyovu Bugesera

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kiyovu found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Bugesera has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Kiyovu stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kiyovu VS Bugesera
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
25% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kiyovu

(Home)
10 Oct
Marines
0 : 0
Kiyovu
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
11 Sept
Musanze
1 : 0
Kiyovu
05 Sept
Kiyovu
0 : 1
Gorilla
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
Page 1 of 6

Bugesera

(Away)
10 Oct
Bugesera
2 : 0
Etincelles
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
30 May
Rutsiro
0 : 2
Bugesera
26 May
Rayon Sport
2 : 0
Bugesera
16 May
Mukura Victory Sports
2 : 2
Bugesera
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
2 Etincelles 4 2 1 1 2:2 7
3 Mukura Victory Sports 3 2 0 1 4:2 6
4 Gorilla 3 2 0 1 2:1 6
5 Sunrise 4 1 3 0 3:2 6
6 Marines 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
7 Amagaju 4 1 1 2 3:3 4
8 Gasogi United 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
9 Kiyovu 4 1 1 2 1:2 4
10 Kigali FC 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
11 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
12 Al Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
13 Bugesera 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
14 Police 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
15 Musanze 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
16 Al Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
17 Rayon Sport 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
18 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)