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Kiyovu vs Gorilla - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Sunday I.
Assist: Ndong C.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Kiyovu and Gorilla finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gorilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Kiyovu
15%
Draws
48%
Gorilla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gorilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Kiyovu carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Kiyovu Clean Sheet 23%
Gorilla Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kiyovu Gorilla
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 11 9
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 0.97 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.59 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Premier League
Kiyovu vs Gorilla
0:1
Jan 30, 2026 Premier League
Kiyovu vs Gorilla
0:0
Nov 27, 2025 Premier League
Gorilla vs Kiyovu
0:1
Mar 1, 2025 Premier League
Kiyovu vs Gorilla
3:1
Dec 15, 2024 Premier League
Gorilla vs Kiyovu
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kiyovu Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Gorilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Sunday I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kiyovu 37 / 100
Gorilla 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kiyovu Gorilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gorilla Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kiyovu's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Gorilla conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Kiyovu went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kiyovu VS Gorilla
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
25% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kiyovu

(Home)
10 Oct
Marines
0 : 0
Kiyovu
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
11 Sept
Musanze
1 : 0
Kiyovu
05 Sept
Kiyovu
0 : 1
Gorilla
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
Page 1 of 6

Gorilla

(Away)
09 Oct
Gorilla
1 : 0
Rayon Sport
12 Sept
Gorilla
0 : 1
Etincelles
05 Sept
Kiyovu
0 : 1
Gorilla
31 May
Gorilla
3 : 1
Al Merreikh
26 May
Gorilla
0 : 4
Etincelles
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
2 Etincelles 4 2 1 1 2:2 7
3 Mukura Victory Sports 3 2 0 1 4:2 6
4 Gorilla 3 2 0 1 2:1 6
5 Sunrise 4 1 3 0 3:2 6
6 Marines 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
7 Amagaju 4 1 1 2 3:3 4
8 Gasogi United 3 1 1 1 2:3 4
9 Kiyovu 4 1 1 2 1:2 4
10 Kigali FC 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
11 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
12 Al Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
13 Bugesera 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
14 Police 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
15 Musanze 3 1 0 2 1:2 3
16 Al Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
17 Rayon Sport 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
18 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)