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Kiyovu vs Marines

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League 2025/2026
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AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Kiyovu and Marines finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Marines.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Kiyovu
15%
Draws
37%
Marines
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kiyovu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Marines haven't matched Kiyovu's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Kiyovu a 48% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Marines have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Kiyovu Clean Sheet 68%
Marines Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kiyovu Marines
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 14 11
Draws 10 9
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.48
Goals Conceded 0.6 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2026 Premier League
Kiyovu vs Marines
1:2
Dec 14, 2025 Premier League
Marines vs Kiyovu
1:0
Mar 7, 2025 Premier League
Kiyovu vs Marines
2:1
Oct 20, 2024 Premier League
Marines vs Kiyovu
4:2
Feb 24, 2024 Premier League
Marines vs Kiyovu
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kiyovu 50 / 100
Marines 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kiyovu Marines

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kiyovu Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Kiyovu's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Marines's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Kiyovu stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kiyovu VS Marines
0.63 Goals Scored 2.13
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
25% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Kiyovu

(Home)
15 Sept
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Bugesera
11 Sept
Musanze
1 : 0
Kiyovu
05 Sept
Kiyovu
0 : 1
Gorilla
30 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Police
27 Aug
Kiyovu
1 : 0
Mukura Victory Sports
Page 1 of 6

Marines

(Away)
16 Sept
APR
4 : 2
Marines
06 Sept
Marines
2 : 0
Kigali FC
30 May
Marines
3 : 2
Muhanga
24 May
Marines
1 : 1
Musanze
16 May
Marines
2 : 3
Etincelles
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al-Hilal Omdurman 34 23 6 5 74:25 75
2 APR 34 19 11 4 50:28 68
3 Al-Merreikh 34 16 11 7 41:24 59
4 Rayon Sport 34 14 14 6 40:30 56
5 Kiyovu 34 13 14 7 34:21 53
6 Police 34 12 16 6 29:19 52
7 Mukura Victory Sports 34 12 11 11 36:38 47
8 Marines 34 12 9 13 47:43 45
9 Bugesera 34 12 8 14 34:39 44
10 Musanze 34 11 10 13 38:37 43
11 Gorilla 34 10 10 14 31:42 40
12 Gicumbi 34 10 8 16 38:54 38
13 Etincelles 34 7 16 11 32:40 37
14 Kigali FC 34 8 11 15 27:39 35
15 Gasogi United 34 8 11 15 29:44 35
16 Amagaju 34 9 8 17 19:38 35
17 Muhanga 34 8 7 19 25:46 31
18 Rutsiro 34 6 11 17 30:47 29
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)