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Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK

Turkey Turkey

Turkish Cup Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu
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Match Events

18' Event
Churlinov D.
Assist: Rivas R.
45' Event
Churlinov D.
Assist: Petkovic B.
47'
Erdem E.

AI Match Summary

Kocaelispor in this Turkish Cup matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kocaelispor.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Kocaelispor
28%
Draws
50%
Erzurumspor FK
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Erzurumspor FK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Erzurumspor FK lately — more wins on the board than Kocaelispor.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Erzurumspor FK taking it.
  • Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Kocaelispor Clean Sheet 16%
Erzurumspor FK Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kocaelispor Erzurumspor FK
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 8 23
Draws 9 6
Losses 13 5
Goals Scored 0.63 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 23, 2025 Turkish Cup
Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK
3:1
Feb 1, 2025 1. Lig
Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor
1:1
Aug 23, 2024 1. Lig
Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK
1:0
Mar 2, 2024 1. Lig
Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor
0:0
Oct 6, 2023 1. Lig
Kocaelispor vs Erzurumspor FK
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kocaelispor Compare

Top Goalscorer Churlinov D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Nonge J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Erzurumspor FK Compare

Top Goalscorer Baiye B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kocaelispor 23 / 100
Erzurumspor FK 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kocaelispor Erzurumspor FK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ERZ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Kocaelispor scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Erzurumspor FK has conceded goals in 50% of their last 34 outings.

Kocaelispor went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kocaelispor VS Erzurumspor FK
0.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Galatasaray44008:312
2Trabzonspor430113:49
3Alanyaspor42118:47
4Basaksehir42028:76
5F. Karagumruk41215:65
6Boluspor40221:62
7Istanbulspor AS40222:92
8Fethiyespor40131:71
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Samsunspor440012:312
2Konyaspor44009:112
3Genclerbirligi43109:510
4Igdir FK41219:45
5Eyupspor41125:64
6Bodrumspor40133:71
7Aliaga40135:161
8Antalyaspor40040:100
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Besiktas431010:310
2Fenerbahce43019:39
3Erzurumspor FK42028:86
4Gaziantep42028:106
5Kocaelispor41124:44
6Rizespor41127:94
7Beyoglu Yeni Carsi41123:54
8Keciorengucu41036:133