Sport Picks

Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026

Stal Krasnik

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This III Liga - Group IV 2025/2026 encounter between Kolbuszowa Dolna and Stal Krasnik promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Kolbuszowa Dolna averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in recent matches. Stal Krasnik shows a form average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 1 wins for Kolbuszowa Dolna, 1 wins for Stal Krasnik, and 0 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 11.04.26 ended in a 1:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.19 for Kolbuszowa Dolna and 1.13 for Stal Krasnik, suggesting the primary value lies in the Kolbuszowa Dolna double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Kolbuszowa Dolna

16%

Draws

34%

Stal Krasnik

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Kolbuszowa Dolna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Kolbuszowa Dolna picked up more points recently compared to Stal Krasnik.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Kolbuszowa Dolna Clean Sheet 21%

Stal Krasnik Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Kolbuszowa Dolna	Stal Krasnik
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	11	7
Draws	3	6
Losses	14	16
Goals Scored	1.21	1.1
Goals Conceded	1.79	1.79
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

11.04.26 III Liga - Group IV

Kolbuszowa Dolna vs Stal Krasnik

Possession: 42% - 53% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

20.09.25 III Liga - Group IV

Stal Krasnik vs Kolbuszowa Dolna

Possession: 41% - 59% Cards: 3 - 3

3:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Kolbuszowa Dolna

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Stal Krasnik

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kolbuszowa Dolna Compare

Top Goalscorer Zych J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Stal Krasnik Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A

0 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kolbuszowa Dolna 49 / 100

Stal Krasnik 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Kolbuszowa Dolna Stal Krasnik

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Kolbuszowa Dolna or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19%

2.38

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Kolbuszowa Dolna 55%

Stal Krasnik 27%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Kolbuszowa Dolna 48%

Stal Krasnik 36%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Kolbuszowa Dolna 50%

Stal Krasnik 34%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Kolbuszowa Dolna 53%

Stal Krasnik 32%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Kolbuszowa Dolna 45%

Stal Krasnik 37%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Kolbuszowa Dolna 57%

Stal Krasnik 39%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kolbuszowa Dolna attacking → ← attacking Stal Krasnik

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kolbuszowa Dolna have found the net in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Stal Krasnik have conceded at least one goal in 90% of their last 29 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 2.50 goals per match.

Kolbuszowa Dolna remained undefeated in 4 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Stal Krasnik suffered defeat in 0 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 27

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Avia Swidnik	34	23	8	3	84:35	77
2	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	34	22	8	4	66:30	74
3	Chelmianka Chelm	34	21	9	4	65:31	72
4	Korona Kielce II	34	18	4	12	66:59	58
5	Star Starachowice	34	15	10	9	51:43	55
6	Czarni Polaniec	34	16	5	13	59:49	53
7	Biala Podlaska	34	14	10	10	60:48	52
8	Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow	34	14	9	11	61:45	51
9	Wislanie Skawina	34	15	6	13	52:51	51
10	Wisla II	34	15	4	15	67:58	49
11	Wisloka Debica	34	12	12	10	37:35	48
12	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	34	11	10	13	59:52	43
13	Naprzod Jedrzejow	34	11	5	18	45:55	38
14	Kolbuszowa Dolna	34	11	4	19	36:54	37
15	Stal Krasnik	34	9	7	18	42:52	34
16	Cracovia II	34	9	6	19	44:71	33
17	Swidniczanka Swidnik	34	5	4	25	35:80	19
18	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka	34	4	1	29	29:110	13