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Korba vs Ariana

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue 2
Korba Logo

Korba

1 - 0
FT
Ariana Logo

Ariana

Our Tip

Match Events

72' Event
Karoui A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Korba in this Ligue 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Korba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Korba
30%
Draws
23%
Ariana
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Korba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Korba have won more games recently than Ariana.
  • Korba are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Korba have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Korba Clean Sheet 68%
Ariana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Korba Ariana
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 8
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 0.97 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Ligue 2
Korba vs Ariana
1:0
Nov 16, 2025 Ligue 2
Ariana vs Korba
0:2
Apr 13, 2025 Ligue 2
Ariana vs Korba
2:0
Nov 30, 2024 Ligue 2
Korba vs Ariana
3:1
May 31, 2024 Ligue 2
Korba vs Ariana
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Korba Compare

Top Goalscorer Karoui A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Ariana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Korba 86 / 100
Ariana 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Korba Ariana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Korba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Ariana conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Korba stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Korba scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Korba VS Ariana
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Korba

(Home)
12 May
Bouchamma
1 : 1
Korba
02 May
Korba
1 : 0
Djelma
28 Apr
Sidi Bouzid
1 : 5
Korba
22 Apr
PS Sakiet Eddaier
4 : 0
Korba
11 Apr
Korba
1 : 0
Ariana
Page 1 of 6

Ariana

(Away)
16 Aug
Club Africain
2 : 0
Ariana
12 May
Moknine
1 : 1
Ariana
02 May
Ariana
1 : 1
Gafsa
28 Apr
Bouchamma
5 : 0
Ariana
19 Apr
Ariana
3 : 0
Sidi Bouzid
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hamam-Sousse 26 15 6 5 40:19 51
2 Hammam-Lif 26 15 6 5 36:14 51
3 US Tataouine 26 15 6 5 34:16 51
4 Sfax Railways 26 13 7 6 35:26 46
5 Sporting Ben Arous 26 8 10 8 30:19 34
6 Kerkennah 26 8 10 8 27:27 34
7 Chebba 26 8 9 9 33:37 33
8 Msaken 26 7 10 9 23:28 31
9 BS Bouhajla 26 7 9 10 21:23 30
10 Megrine 26 7 9 10 25:35 30
11 EM Mahdia 26 6 10 10 18:25 28
12 AS Agareb 26 7 7 12 22:33 28
13 Bousalem 26 6 7 13 19:34 25
14 Menzel Bourguiba 26 3 8 15 15:42 17
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PS Sakiet Eddaier 26 16 8 2 54:15 56
2 Stade Gabesien 26 15 8 3 43:16 53
3 Kasserine 26 14 5 7 31:18 47
4 Jendouba Sport 26 9 11 6 34:24 38
5 Korba 26 9 10 7 21:20 37
6 Bouchamma 26 9 8 9 35:30 35
7 Gafsa 26 9 7 10 28:31 34
8 Ariana 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ksour Essef 26 9 5 12 40:34 32
10 Redeyef 26 8 8 10 27:39 32
11 Kalaa 26 9 3 14 28:44 30
12 Moknine 26 7 8 11 29:36 29
13 Djelma 26 6 8 12 16:33 26
14 Sidi Bouzid 26 3 5 18 17:57 14
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion - Play Offs)