Sport Picks
Kostinbrod vs Kyustendil
Bulgaria
Third League - South-West 2025/2026 
AI Match Summary
The Third League - South-West 2025/2026 game between Kostinbrod and Kyustendil finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kostinbrod.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kostinbrod
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Kostinbrod come out ahead of Kyustendil on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Kostinbrod's way, sitting at 40%.
- Regular Third League - South-West 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Kostinbrod here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Kostinbrod Clean Sheet 20%
Kyustendil Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kostinbrod | Kyustendil |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 14 | 12 |
| Draws | 3 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.27 | 1.22 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.47 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 Third League - South-West
Kostinbrod vs Kyustendil
3:1
Apr 25, 2026 Third League - South-West
Kostinbrod vs Kyustendil
2:1
Oct 11, 2025 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Kostinbrod
0:2
Jun 1, 2024 Third League - South-West
Kostinbrod vs Kyustendil
1:0
Nov 18, 2023 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Kostinbrod
3:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kostinbrod 40 / 100
Kyustendil 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kostinbrod Kyustendil
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Kostinbrod Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Kostinbrod's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Kyustendil let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Solid form: Kostinbrod remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Kostinbrod VS Kyustendil
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Kostinbrod
(Home) 12 Sept
Slivnishki Geroy
0 : 3 Kostinbrod
05 Sept
Kostinbrod
1 : 3 Septemvri Sofia 2
29 Aug
Levski Sofia II
1 : 2 Kostinbrod
23 Aug
Kostinbrod
1 : 0 Slavia Sofia 2
15 Aug
Botev Ihtiman
1 : 0 Kostinbrod
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Kostinbrod
1 : 3 Septemvri Sofia 2
23 Aug
Kostinbrod
1 : 0 Slavia Sofia 2
08 Aug
Kostinbrod
3 : 1 Kyustendil
23 May
Kostinbrod
2 : 1 Levski Sofia II
09 May
Kostinbrod
1 : 1 Slivnishki Geroy
Page 1 of 3
Kyustendil
(Away) 12 Sept
Kyustendil
0 : 1 Pirin Razlog
05 Sept
Natsional Sofia
1 : 1 Kyustendil
29 Aug
Kyustendil
3 : 1 Chavdar Etropole
22 Aug
CSKA Sofia III
1 : 1 Kyustendil
15 Aug
Kyustendil
0 : 1 Balkan Botevgrad
Page 1 of 7
05 Sept
Natsional Sofia
1 : 1 Kyustendil
22 Aug
CSKA Sofia III
1 : 1 Kyustendil
08 Aug
Kostinbrod
3 : 1 Kyustendil
29 May
Septemvri Simitli
2 : 0 Kyustendil
17 May
Slavia Sofia 2
8 : 1 Kyustendil
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rilski Sportist | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 58:23 | 80 |
| 2 | Strumska Slava | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 71:45 | 65 |
| 3 | Slavia Sofia 2 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 68:44 | 57 |
| 4 | Botev Ihtiman | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:40 | 51 |
| 5 | Kyustendil | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 49:52 | 50 |
| 6 | CSKA Sofia III | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 49:43 | 50 |
| 7 | Oborishte Panagyurishte | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 43:37 | 49 |
| 8 | Balkan Botevgrad | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 50:45 | 49 |
| 9 | Septemvri Sofia 2 | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 50:43 | 48 |
| 10 | Septemvri Simitli | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 41:40 | 47 |
| 11 | Kostinbrod | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 47:51 | 47 |
| 12 | Pirin Razlog | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 43:48 | 45 |
| 13 | Bansko | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 39:45 | 44 |
| 14 | Slivnishki Geroy | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40:49 | 42 |
| 15 | Levski Sofia II | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 30:44 | 40 |
| 16 | Gotse Delchev | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 43:70 | 37 |
| 17 | Germaneya | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 38:75 | 18 |
| 18 | Bistritsa | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 44:62 | 38 |
Relegation - Third League - South-West 2025/2026 (Relegation)
