Sport Picks

Bulgaria

Third League - South-West 2025/2026

Kostinbrod

2 - 1

Kyustendil

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-West 2025/2026 game between Kostinbrod and Kyustendil finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kostinbrod.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%

Kostinbrod

17%

Draws

13%

Kyustendil

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Kostinbrod

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

Recent numbers put Kostinbrod and Kyustendil close enough that form isn't the deciding factor here.
Win probability leans Kostinbrod's way, sitting at 70%.
Regular Third League - South-West 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Kostinbrod Clean Sheet 19%

Kyustendil Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Kostinbrod	Kyustendil
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	12	12
Draws	5	5
Losses	13	13
Goals Scored	0.88	0.88
Goals Conceded	1.63	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Third League - South-West

Kostinbrod vs Kyustendil

Possession: 42% - 42% Cards: 1 - 3

2:1

Oct 11, 2025 Third League - South-West

Kyustendil vs Kostinbrod

Possession: 48% - 41% Cards: 3 - 1

0:2

Jun 1, 2024 Third League - South-West

Kostinbrod vs Kyustendil

Possession: 48% - 44% Cards: 1 - 0

1:0

Nov 18, 2023 Third League - South-West

Kyustendil vs Kostinbrod

Possession: 58% - 49% Cards: 0 - 2

3:1

Mar 11, 2023 Third League - South-West

Kyustendil vs Kostinbrod

Possession: 54% - 55% Cards: 3 - 3

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kostinbrod 67 / 100

Kyustendil 15 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Kostinbrod Kyustendil

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KOS Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kostinbrod found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Kyustendil's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Kostinbrod went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kostinbrod VS Kyustendil

0.88 Goals Scored 0.88

1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 50%

50% Over 2.5 50%

25% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rilski Sportist	34	25	5	4	58:23	80
2	Strumska Slava	34	20	5	9	71:45	65
3	Slavia Sofia 2	34	17	6	11	68:44	57
4	Botev Ihtiman	34	14	9	11	53:40	51
5	Kyustendil	34	15	5	14	49:52	50
6	CSKA Sofia III	34	15	5	14	49:43	50
7	Oborishte Panagyurishte	34	14	7	13	43:37	49
8	Balkan Botevgrad	34	13	10	11	50:45	49
9	Septemvri Sofia 2	34	13	9	12	50:43	48
10	Septemvri Simitli	34	13	8	13	41:40	47
11	Kostinbrod	34	14	5	15	47:51	47
12	Pirin Razlog	34	13	6	15	43:48	45
13	Bansko	34	11	11	12	39:45	44
14	Slivnishki Geroy	34	11	9	14	40:49	42
15	Levski Sofia II	34	11	7	16	30:44	40
16	Gotse Delchev	34	11	4	19	43:70	37
17	Germaneya	34	4	6	24	38:75	18
18	Bistritsa	34	11	5	18	44:62	38