Sport Picks
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Orenburg
Russia
Russian Cup 2025/2026 Samara Arena, Samara 
Match Events
6'
6'
Kvekveskiri I.
11'
11'
Sub
Khotulev D. In: Kasimov A.
Out: Khotulev D.
38'
38'
Galdames T.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-0, with Krylya Sovetov Samara advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
22%
28%
50%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Orenburg
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Orenburg come out ahead of Krylya Sovetov Samara on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Orenburg's way, sitting at 50%.
- Orenburg arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Krylya Sovetov Samara, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Krylya Sovetov Samara Clean Sheet 19%
Orenburg Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Krylya Sovetov Samara | Orenburg |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 25 |
| Wins | 11 | 12 |
| Draws | 5 | 3 |
| Losses | 12 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 1.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2026 Premier League
Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov Samara
1:0
Mar 4, 2026 Russian Cup
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Orenburg
2:0
Oct 18, 2025 Premier League
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Orenburg
1:1
Apr 27, 2025 Premier League
Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Orenburg
2:0
Oct 20, 2024 Premier League
Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov Samara
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Krylya Sovetov Samara Compare
Top Goalscorer Fernandez D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Babkin S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Orenburg Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Krylya Sovetov Samara 24 / 100
Orenburg 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Krylya Sovetov Samara Orenburg
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick ORE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Krylya Sovetov Samara found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).
Defensive concern: Orenburg conceded in 72% of 25 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.20 goals.
Recent resilience: Krylya Sovetov Samara stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Krylya Sovetov Samara VS Orenburg
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Krylya Sovetov Samara
(Home) 18 Jul
Akron Togliatti
2 : 1 Krylya Sovetov Samara
11 Jul
Rubin Kazan
2 : 0 Krylya Sovetov Samara
04 Jul
Spartak Moscow
3 : 2 Krylya Sovetov Samara
01 Jul
Krylya Sovetov Samara
2 : 3 Saratov
28 Jun
Krylya Sovetov Samara
1 : 1 Neftekhimik
Page 1 of 6
01 Jul
Krylya Sovetov Samara
2 : 3 Saratov
28 Jun
Krylya Sovetov Samara
1 : 1 Neftekhimik
17 May
Krylya Sovetov Samara
4 : 1 Akron Togliatti
01 May
Krylya Sovetov Samara
2 : 1 Spartak Moscow
25 Apr
Krylya Sovetov Samara
2 : 0 Lokomotiv Moscow
Page 1 of 4
Orenburg
(Away) 11 Jul
Orenburg
2 : 2 CSKA Moscow
11 Jul
Orenburg
2 : 0 CSKA Moscow
07 Jul
Dynamo Moscow
2 : 1 Orenburg
03 Jul
Rubin Kazan
1 : 2 Orenburg
25 Jun
Orenburg
0 : 1 Neftekhimik
Page 1 of 5
07 Jul
Dynamo Moscow
2 : 1 Orenburg
03 Jul
Rubin Kazan
1 : 2 Orenburg
17 May
Krasnodar
3 : 0 Orenburg
03 May
PFC Sochi
3 : 1 Orenburg
25 Apr
FK Rostov
0 : 1 Orenburg
Page 1 of 2
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Torpedo Moscow0
Baltika2
TBD-
Zenit St Petersburg-
Neftekhimik1
FK Rostov3
TBD-
Dynamo Makhachkala-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Kamaz1
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
TBD-
Orenburg-
Arsenal Tula1
Rubin Kazan0
TBD-
Lokomotiv Moscow-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
1/8-finals
Baltika0
Zenit St Petersburg1
FK Rostov0
Dynamo Makhachkala2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
Orenburg0
Arsenal Tula1
Lokomotiv Moscow2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
Quarter-finals
Zenit St Petersburg1
Dynamo Makhachkala0
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Krylya Sovetov Samara3
Lokomotiv Moscow2
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
Semi-finals
Zenit St Petersburg0
Spartak Moscow1
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
CSKA Moscow5
Final
Spartak Moscow1
CSKA Moscow0