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KS Wierzyca Pelplin vs Starogard Gdanski

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group II 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

KS Wierzyca Pelplin play Starogard Gdanski in the III Liga - Group II 2018/2019. It looks like a close match. Recently, KS Wierzyca Pelplin averaged 1.14 goals scored and 2.69 conceded. Starogard Gdanski averaged 1 goals scored and 2.65 conceded. In past meetings, KS Wierzyca Pelplin won 0, Starogard Gdanski won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on May 1, 2019 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.88 for KS Wierzyca Pelplin and 1.69 for Starogard Gdanski. This points to a Starogard Gdanski double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
KS Wierzyca Pelplin
35%
Draws
38%
Starogard Gdanski
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Starogard Gdanski

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • KS Wierzyca Pelplin picked up more points recently compared to Starogard Gdanski.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.88 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 76%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 76%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
KS Wierzyca Pelplin Clean Sheet 13%
Starogard Gdanski Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric KS Wierzyca Pelplin Starogard Gdanski
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 2 2
Draws 4 8
Losses 23 24
Goals Scored 1.14 1
Goals Conceded 2.69 2.65
Expected Goals (xG) 3.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2019 III Liga - Group II
KS Wierzyca Pelplin vs Starogard Gdanski
0:0
Sep 30, 2018 III Liga - Group II
Starogard Gdanski vs KS Wierzyca Pelplin
2:2
Mar 31, 2018 III Liga - Group II
Starogard Gdanski vs KS Wierzyca Pelplin
2:0
Aug 26, 2017 III Liga - Group II
KS Wierzyca Pelplin vs Starogard Gdanski
2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

KS Wierzyca Pelplin 27 / 100
Starogard Gdanski 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
KS Wierzyca Pelplin Starogard Gdanski

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Starogard Gdanski or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +42%
5.26
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.7%
1.43
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

KS Wierzyca Pelplin attacking → ← attacking Starogard Gdanski

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

KS Wierzyca Pelplin scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Starogard Gdanski let in goals in 88% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

KS Wierzyca Pelplin went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Starogard Gdanski lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

10 Points in last 5 14
3.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Lech Poznan II34236586:3375
2KKS Kalisz34216770:3769
3Stezyca34216775:3769
4Kotwica Kolobrzeg34208670:4168
5KS Mieszko Gniezno341941174:5361
6Polonia Sroda Wielkopol341931259:4460
7Swit Szczecin341610850:3358
8B. Gdynia341831359:5057
9Kleczew341651348:5053
10Starogard Gdanski341491156:3751
11Pogon Szczecin II341431752:5945
12Gornik Konin341251746:5641
13Baltyk Koszalin341241857:7540
14Jarocin341081637:5038
15Gwardia Koszalin341032135:7133
16Chemik Bydgoszcz34932238:6630
17KS Wierzyca Pelplin34352634:8114
18Wda Swiecie34152820:938