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Kumla vs Karlstad II - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Sweden Sweden

Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kumla host Karlstad II in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Kumla have averaged 1.13 scored and 1.9 conceded recently, against Karlstad II's 1.18 scored and 2.36 conceded. Past meetings favor Karlstad II slightly — 0-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 8, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 1.75, favoring Kumla. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Kumla
30%
Draws
12%
Karlstad II
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kumla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kumla come out ahead of Karlstad II on wins alone.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Kumla taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Kumla Clean Sheet 12%
Karlstad II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kumla Karlstad II
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 9 4
Draws 8 7
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.13 1.18
Goals Conceded 1.9 2.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 8, 2026 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Karlstad II vs Kumla
1:1
Nov 6, 2021 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Karlstad II vs Kumla
3:0
Aug 30, 2021 Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Kumla vs Karlstad II
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kumla 74 / 100
Karlstad II 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kumla Karlstad II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kumla Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Karlstad II let in goals in 89% of their last 28 matches.

Kumla's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Kumla has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kumla VS Karlstad II
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Kumla

(Home)
08 Oct
Vanersborgs FK
3 : 3
Kumla
03 Oct
Skara
3 : 1
Kumla
26 Sept
Kumla
1 : 0
Lidkoping
18 Sept
Herrestads AIF
2 : 1
Kumla
11 Sept
Kumla
0 : 0
Motala
Page 1 of 7

Karlstad II

(Away)
04 Oct
Karlstad II
1 : 3
Tord
27 Sept
IFK Skovde
1 : 0
Karlstad II
20 Sept
Karlstad II
0 : 2
Stenungsunds IF
12 Sept
Karlstad II
1 : 4
Skara
05 Sept
Herrestads AIF
2 : 2
Karlstad II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Husqvarna 24 20 3 1 58:18 63
2 Skara 24 16 5 3 51:26 53
3 IFK Skovde 24 14 5 5 42:25 47
4 Ahlafors 24 12 7 5 55:28 43
5 Grebbestad 24 12 3 9 43:36 39
6 Herrestads AIF 24 10 7 7 44:42 37
7 Stenungsunds IF 24 9 6 9 42:33 33
8 Vanersborgs FK 25 8 5 12 33:43 29
9 Lidkoping 24 7 6 11 29:42 27
10 Motala 24 6 8 10 35:38 26
11 Kumla 25 6 8 11 26:45 26
12 Tord 24 4 9 11 29:43 21
13 Karlstad II 24 2 7 15 24:47 13
14 Vanersborgs IF 24 2 3 19 24:69 9
Promotion - Division 2 - Norra Götaland (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Division 2 - Norra Götaland (Relegation)