Sport Picks
Kwara vs Nasarawa United
Nigeria
NPFL 2025/2026 Kwara Sports Stadium, Ilorin 
Match Events
22'
22'
Amadi B.
50'
50'
Bright B.
62'
62'
Sub
Utaka E. In: Ajiya I.
Out: Utaka E.
AI Match Summary
The NPFL 2025/2026 game between Kwara and Nasarawa United finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kwara.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nasarawa United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- Kwara haven't matched Nasarawa United's recent run of results.
- Kwara are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Kwara here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Kwara Clean Sheet 68%
Nasarawa United Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kwara | Nasarawa United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 12 |
| Draws | 6 | 4 |
| Losses | 11 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 28, 2026 NPFL
Kwara vs Nasarawa United
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 NPFL
Nasarawa United vs Kwara
1:1
Mar 26, 2025 NPFL
Kwara vs Nasarawa United
1:0
Nov 10, 2024 NPFL
Nasarawa United vs Kwara
0:1
May 24, 2023 Federation Cup
Nasarawa United vs Kwara
0:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kwara 68 / 100
Nasarawa United 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kwara Nasarawa United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Kwara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Kwara scored in 61% of their last 28 games.
Defensive concern: Nasarawa United conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.
Away concern: Nasarawa United has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Kwara VS Nasarawa United
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Kwara
(Home) 13 Sept
Kwara
3 : 0 Katsina Utd
06 Sept
Plateau United
1 : 0 Kwara
30 Aug
Kwara
2 : 2 Kano Pillars
01 Jun
Kwara
0 : 1 Sokoto United
24 May
Bayelsa United
4 : 0 Kwara
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Kwara
3 : 0 Katsina Utd
30 Aug
Kwara
2 : 2 Kano Pillars
01 Jun
Kwara
0 : 1 Sokoto United
10 May
Kwara
2 : 0 Enyimba International
19 Apr
Kwara
2 : 1 Barau
Page 1 of 4
Nasarawa United
(Away) 18 Sept
Rangers International
2 : 1 Nasarawa United
06 Sept
Nasarawa United
1 : 0 Bendel
30 Aug
Barau
3 : 1 Nasarawa United
17 Jun
Nasarawa United
1 : 2 Ikorodu City
11 Jun
Nasarawa United
2 : 1 Plateau United
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Rangers International
2 : 1 Nasarawa United
30 Aug
Barau
3 : 1 Nasarawa United
06 Jun
Rivers United
2 : 3 Nasarawa United
01 Jun
Ejigbo City
0 : 3 Nasarawa United
24 May
Barau
3 : 0 Nasarawa United
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rangers International | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 47:27 | 68 |
| 2 | Rivers United | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 44:31 | 67 |
| 3 | Shooting | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 41:40 | 60 |
| 4 | Ikorodu City | 38 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 43:39 | 58 |
| 5 | Bendel | 38 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 44:38 | 56 |
| 6 | Nasarawa United | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 37:34 | 56 |
| 7 | Abia Warriors | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 31:34 | 55 |
| 8 | Barau | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 34:30 | 52 |
| 9 | Katsina Utd | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 36:39 | 52 |
| 10 | Plateau United | 38 | 15 | 5 | 18 | 39:40 | 50 |
| 11 | Enyimba International | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 44:42 | 49 |
| 12 | Kun Khalifa | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 42:40 | 49 |
| 13 | Warri Wolves | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 36:41 | 49 |
| 14 | Niger Tornadoes | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 37:36 | 48 |
| 15 | Kano Pillars | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 34:39 | 48 |
| 16 | Kwara | 38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 32:36 | 47 |
| 17 | Remo Stars | 38 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 42:47 | 47 |
| 18 | El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 27:46 | 47 |
| 19 | Bayelsa United | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 37:42 | 43 |
| 20 | Wikki Tourists | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 36:48 | 40 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
