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Kyustendil vs Bistritsa

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-West
Sat, Apr 18, 2026
3 - 0
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kyustendil play Bistritsa in the Third League - South-West. It looks like a close match. Recently, Kyustendil averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. Bistritsa averaged 1.07 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. In past meetings, Kyustendil won 3, Bistritsa won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 18, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for Kyustendil and 1.44 for Bistritsa. This points to a Kyustendil double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Kyustendil
15%
Draws
34%
Bistritsa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kyustendil

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Kyustendil picked up more points recently compared to Bistritsa.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 73%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 73%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
Kyustendil Clean Sheet 16%
Bistritsa Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kyustendil Bistritsa
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 5 1
Losses 13 19
Goals Scored 1.29 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.52 2.07
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Bistritsa
3:0
Oct 4, 2025 Third League - South-West
Bistritsa vs Kyustendil
2:1
Mar 15, 2025 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Bistritsa
2:0
Aug 24, 2024 Third League - South-West
Bistritsa vs Kyustendil
0:2
May 25, 2024 Third League - South-West
Kyustendil vs Bistritsa
2:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kyustendil 49 / 100
Bistritsa 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kyustendil Bistritsa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Kyustendil or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18.8%
2.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.8%
1.49
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kyustendil attacking → ← attacking Bistritsa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kyustendil scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Bistritsa let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Kyustendil went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Bistritsa lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 31
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Rilski Sportist34255458:2380
2Strumska Slava34205971:4565
3Slavia Sofia 2341761168:4457
4Botev Ihtiman341491153:4051
5Kyustendil341551449:5250
6CSKA Sofia III341551449:4350
7Oborishte Panagyurishte341471343:3749
8Balkan Botevgrad3413101150:4549
9Septemvri Sofia 2341391250:4348
10Septemvri Simitli341381341:4047
11Kostinbrod341451547:5147
12Pirin Razlog341361543:4845
13Bansko3411111239:4544
14Slivnishki Geroy341191440:4942
15Levski Sofia II341171630:4440
16Gotse Delchev341141943:7037
17Germaneya34462438:7518
18Bistritsa341151844:6238