Sport Picks

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La Luz vs Tacuarembo

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division
Mon, Jul 13, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

La Luz play Tacuarembo in the Segunda Division. It looks like a close match. Recently, La Luz averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Tacuarembo averaged 1.09 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. In past meetings, La Luz won 1, Tacuarembo won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Mar 17, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for La Luz and 1.00 for Tacuarembo. This points to a La Luz double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
La Luz
35%
Draws
32%
Tacuarembo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: La Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • La Luz picked up more points recently compared to Tacuarembo.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Over 3.5 Goals 17%
Over 4.5 Goals 8%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
La Luz Clean Sheet 23%
Tacuarembo Clean Sheet 18%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric La Luz Tacuarembo
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 9
Draws 15 13
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 0.93 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2026 Segunda Division
Tacuarembo vs La Luz
1:1
Aug 30, 2025 Segunda Division
Tacuarembo vs La Luz
1:1
Jun 7, 2025 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Tacuarembo
1:2
Mar 30, 2025 Segunda Division
Tacuarembo vs La Luz
1:1
Sep 29, 2024 Segunda Division
La Luz vs Tacuarembo
2:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

La Luz 34 / 100
Tacuarembo 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
La Luz Tacuarembo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: La Luz or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +27.4%
4.55
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

La Luz attacking → ← attacking Tacuarembo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

La Luz scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Tacuarembo let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

La Luz went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Tacuarembo lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 40
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Atenas961217:819
2Cerrito943214:1315
3River Plate Montevideo942314:1414
4Tacuarembo94238:814
5Fenix934214:1113
6Miramar934214:1113
7Plaza Colonia94148:813
8Colon93338:912
9Huracan FC93338:1012
10Club Oriental De Futbol925214:1211
11Rentistas93248:1211
12La Luz92436:810
13Paysandu FC921611:157
14Uruguay Montevideo FC92169:147