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La Nucia vs Lorca Deportiva - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 3
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

La Nucia host Lorca Deportiva in the Segunda RFEF - Group 3. Chances could be at a premium in this fixture. Recent numbers: La Nucia at 1.37 goals for, 0.53 against; Lorca Deportiva at 0.69 for, 1.1 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (1.19 xG vs 0.50) point toward La Nucia. Under 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
La Nucia
20%
Draws
24%
Lorca Deportiva
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: La Nucia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to La Nucia lately — more wins on the board than Lorca Deportiva.
  • La Nucia are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.6%
La Nucia Clean Sheet 68%
Lorca Deportiva Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric La Nucia Lorca Deportiva
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 18 7
Draws 7 8
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 1.37 0.69
Goals Conceded 0.53 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

La Nucia 95 / 100
Lorca Deportiva 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
La Nucia Lorca Deportiva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick La Nucia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

La Nucia's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Lorca Deportiva's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: La Nucia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Lorca Deportiva has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

La Nucia VS Lorca Deportiva
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

La Nucia

(Home)
04 Oct
Deportiva Minera
2 : 0
La Nucia
27 Sept
La Nucia
2 : 0
Mallorca B
20 Sept
Yeclano
0 : 1
La Nucia
13 Sept
La Nucia
5 : 1
Real Murcia B
06 Sept
La Nucia
1 : 0
UD Poblense
Page 1 of 6

Lorca Deportiva

(Away)
03 Oct
Castellon B
2 : 1
Lorca Deportiva
27 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 0
Castellonense
20 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
0 : 0
CF Intercity
13 Sept
Orihuela
1 : 0
Lorca Deportiva
06 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 1
Ilicitano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Castellon B 5 4 0 1 12:5 12
2 La Nucia 5 4 0 1 9:3 12
3 Castellonense 5 4 0 1 8:3 12
4 Alcoyano 5 3 1 1 6:4 10
5 UCAM Murcia 5 3 0 2 12:6 9
6 CF Intercity 5 2 3 0 7:5 9
7 Ciudad Cieza 5 2 2 1 7:3 8
8 Deportiva Minera 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
9 Yeclano 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
10 Orihuela 5 2 1 2 6:11 7
11 Lorca Deportiva 5 1 2 2 3:4 5
12 Mallorca B 5 1 2 2 2:4 5
13 Baleares 5 1 2 2 6:9 5
14 Valencia B 5 1 1 3 5:7 4
15 Ilicitano 5 1 1 3 3:8 4
16 UD Poblense 5 1 0 4 3:7 3
17 Real Murcia B 5 1 0 4 4:11 3
18 Pena Deportiva 5 0 1 4 3:8 1
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)