Sport Picks
La Union (Malacitano) vs Lorca Deportiva
Spain
Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 
Match Events
36'
36'
Naranjo J.
55'
55'
Heredia A.
71'
71'
El Kounni K.
AI Match Summary
The Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between La Union (Malacitano) and Lorca Deportiva finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lorca Deportiva.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
44%
20%
36%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: La Union (Malacitano)
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
44%
/ Low Confidence
- Lorca Deportiva haven't matched La Union (Malacitano)'s recent run of results.
- La Union (Malacitano) are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
La Union (Malacitano) Clean Sheet 68%
Lorca Deportiva Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | La Union (Malacitano) | Lorca Deportiva |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 8 |
| Draws | 3 | 8 |
| Losses | 16 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.33 | 0.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.43 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.40 | 0.98 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 1, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
La Union (Malacitano) vs Lorca Deportiva
1:2
Sep 20, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Lorca Deportiva vs La Union (Malacitano)
1:2
May 21, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Lorca Deportiva vs La Union (Malacitano)
0:1
May 14, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
La Union (Malacitano) vs Lorca Deportiva
0:0
Feb 19, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Lorca Deportiva vs La Union (Malacitano)
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
La Union (Malacitano) Compare
Top Goalscorer Ruiz C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7
Lorca Deportiva Compare
Top Goalscorer Naranjo J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Heredia A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.89
Avg xA / game 0.54
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
La Union (Malacitano) 59 / 100
Lorca Deportiva 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
La Union (Malacitano) Lorca Deportiva
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick La Union (Malacitano) Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
La Union (Malacitano) found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).
Lorca Deportiva's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.00 goals.
Recent resilience: La Union (Malacitano) stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
La Union (Malacitano) VS Lorca Deportiva
1.67 Goals Scored 0.63
1.33 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
La Union (Malacitano)
(Home) 03 May
La Union (Malacitano)
1 : 0 Puente Genil
26 Apr
CD Extremadura
4 : 2 La Union (Malacitano)
19 Apr
La Union (Malacitano)
4 : 1 UCAM Murcia
12 Apr
Jaen
1 : 0 La Union (Malacitano)
04 Apr
Recreativo Huelva
1 : 0 La Union (Malacitano)
Page 1 of 6
03 May
La Union (Malacitano)
1 : 0 Puente Genil
19 Apr
La Union (Malacitano)
4 : 1 UCAM Murcia
28 Mar
La Union (Malacitano)
3 : 1 Malaga B
15 Mar
La Union (Malacitano)
1 : 2 Deportiva Minera
01 Mar
La Union (Malacitano)
1 : 0 Almeria B
Page 1 of 4
Lorca Deportiva
(Away) 27 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 0 Castellonense
20 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
0 : 0 CF Intercity
13 Sept
Orihuela
1 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
06 Sept
Lorca Deportiva
1 : 1 Ilicitano
15 Aug
Aguilas FC
1 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Orihuela
1 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
15 Aug
Aguilas FC
1 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
03 May
Deportiva Minera
1 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
19 Apr
Aguilas FC
2 : 0 Lorca Deportiva
05 Apr
Almeria B
1 : 1 Lorca Deportiva
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Extremadura | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 54:38 | 63 |
| 2 | Deportiva Minera | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 50:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Aguilas FC | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 45:25 | 61 |
| 4 | Xerez CD | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 32:24 | 59 |
| 5 | Jaen | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 43:33 | 58 |
| 6 | Recreativo Huelva | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 41:25 | 57 |
| 7 | UCAM Murcia | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49:41 | 55 |
| 8 | Linares | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 42:45 | 47 |
| 9 | La Union (Malacitano) | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 44:43 | 45 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 32:36 | 45 |
| 11 | Yeclano | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 33:33 | 44 |
| 12 | Antoniano | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38:40 | 44 |
| 13 | CD Estepona | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 40:44 | 44 |
| 14 | Puente Genil | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 28:37 | 40 |
| 15 | Xerez Deportivo FC | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 34:43 | 36 |
| 16 | Melilla | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 36:40 | 34 |
| 17 | Almeria B | 34 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 26:53 | 21 |
| 18 | Malaga B | 34 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 32:66 | 21 |
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)
