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La Virgen vs Almazan

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Martinez D.
(Penalty)
9' Event
Jimenez H.
27' Event
Castrillo H.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 game between La Virgen and Almazan finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Almazan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
La Virgen
35%
Draws
31%
Almazan
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • La Virgen carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 34% — that's where the model lands on La Virgen taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
La Virgen Clean Sheet 16%
Almazan Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric La Virgen Almazan
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 7 11
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.1 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
La Virgen vs Almazan
1:2
Jan 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Almazan vs La Virgen
0:0
Apr 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
La Virgen vs Almazan
1:1
Dec 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
Almazan vs La Virgen
1:0
Feb 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 8
La Virgen vs Almazan
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

La Virgen Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Almazan Compare

Top Goalscorer Jimenez H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

La Virgen 39 / 100
Almazan 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
La Virgen Almazan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick La Virgen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

La Virgen scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Almazan has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: La Virgen stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

La Virgen VS Almazan
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

La Virgen

(Home)
19 Sept
Turegano
0 : 1
La Virgen
12 Sept
La Virgen
4 : 1
Calasanz de Soria
06 Sept
Salamanca CF UDS B
1 : 2
La Virgen
29 Aug
Bembibre
0 : 0
La Virgen
10 May
CD Mojados
2 : 1
La Virgen
Page 1 of 6

Almazan

(Away)
19 Sept
Almazan
2 : 2
Villaralbo
12 Sept
Arandina
1 : 1
Almazan
06 Sept
Almazan
2 : 1
Unionistas de Salamanca B
10 May
Almazan
1 : 1
Santa Marta Tormes
01 May
La Virgen
1 : 2
Almazan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Tordesillas 34 24 6 4 62:24 78
2 Guijuelo 34 21 7 6 54:26 70
3 Palencia CA 34 21 5 8 48:24 68
4 Palencia CF 34 20 4 10 59:39 64
5 Santa Marta Tormes 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
6 Mansilles 34 15 12 7 31:27 57
7 Almazan 34 12 12 10 49:38 48
8 Mirandes B 34 13 8 13 43:35 47
9 La Virgen 34 12 8 14 31:37 44
10 Villaralbo 34 11 9 14 29:37 42
11 Leonesa B 34 12 6 16 38:43 42
12 Arandina 34 9 10 15 32:46 37
13 Colegios Diocesanos 34 10 6 18 33:54 36
14 Bembibre 34 8 10 16 38:52 34
15 Unionistas de Salamanca B 34 6 13 15 32:43 31
16 CD Mojados 34 7 10 17 28:55 31
17 Becerril 34 7 8 19 41:60 29
18 Numancia B 34 6 6 22 26:56 24
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 8 2025/2026 (Play Offs)