Sport Picks
Lagun Onak vs Aurrera de Vitoria
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 
Match Events
3'
3'
Letamendia A.
8'
8'
Sorazu J. M.
29'
29'
Sorazu J. M.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Lagun Onak and Aurrera de Vitoria finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lagun Onak.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
30%
43%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aurrera de Vitoria
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
43%
/ Low Confidence
- Aurrera de Vitoria carry the better recent record into this one.
- 43% — that's where the model lands on Aurrera de Vitoria taking it.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 14%
Aurrera de Vitoria Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lagun Onak | Aurrera de Vitoria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 14 | 15 |
| Draws | 8 | 5 |
| Losses | 7 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.06 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 17, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Aurrera de Vitoria
4:0
Sep 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Lagun Onak
3:1
Apr 22, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Aurrera de Vitoria
1:0
Jan 7, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Lagun Onak
1:1
Apr 21, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera de Vitoria vs Lagun Onak
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lagun Onak Compare
Top Goalscorer Sorazu J. M.
2 Goals Assists Leader Letamendia A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53
Aurrera de Vitoria Compare
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lagun Onak 19 / 100
Aurrera de Vitoria 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lagun Onak Aurrera de Vitoria
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aurrera de Vitoria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lagun Onak scored in 72% of their last 29 games.
Aurrera de Vitoria has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Solid form: Lagun Onak remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Lagun Onak VS Aurrera de Vitoria
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Lagun Onak
(Home) 27 Sept
Santurtzi
0 : 1 Lagun Onak
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0 San Ignacio
12 Sept
Real Sociedad C
2 : 0 Lagun Onak
05 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 1 Leioa
29 Aug
Lagun Onak
2 : 2 Beasain
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0 San Ignacio
05 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 1 Leioa
29 Aug
Lagun Onak
2 : 2 Beasain
17 May
Lagun Onak
2 : 0 Derio
03 May
Lagun Onak
1 : 1 Eibar C
Page 1 of 3
Aurrera de Vitoria
(Away) 26 Sept
Sodupe
0 : 3 Aurrera de Vitoria
19 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 1 Alaves C
12 Sept
Aurrera de Vitoria
1 : 1 Touring KE
05 Sept
Amurrio Club
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
29 Aug
Aurrera de Vitoria
2 : 0 Amorebieta
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Sodupe
0 : 3 Aurrera de Vitoria
05 Sept
Amurrio Club
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
03 May
Portugalete
1 : 2 Aurrera de Vitoria
18 Apr
Derio
1 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
01 Apr
Alaves C
1 : 1 Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugalete | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 70:29 | 78 |
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50:34 | 61 |
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54:40 | 58 |
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 54:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Touring KE | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 47:35 | 57 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad C | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48:39 | 55 |
| 7 | San Ignacio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 37:27 | 55 |
| 8 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 42:41 | 54 |
| 9 | Alaves C | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57:40 | 53 |
| 10 | UD Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56:61 | 45 |
| 11 | SCD Durango | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 35:36 | 44 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32:45 | 39 |
| 13 | Eibar C | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 44:53 | 36 |
| 14 | Pasaia | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26:46 | 36 |
| 15 | Anorga | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 37:59 | 34 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 42:59 | 33 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 30:60 | 30 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26:49 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
