Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024

Aurrera Ondarroa

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lagun Onak play Aurrera Ondarroa in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Lagun Onak averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. Aurrera Ondarroa averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. In past meetings, Lagun Onak won 3, Aurrera Ondarroa won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 28, 2024 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for Lagun Onak and 0.88 for Aurrera Ondarroa. This points to a Lagun Onak double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%

Lagun Onak

28%

Draws

19%

Aurrera Ondarroa

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Lagun Onak

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence

Lagun Onak picked up more points recently compared to Aurrera Ondarroa.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 0.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 57%

Over 2.5 Goals 34%

Over 3.5 Goals 20%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 25%

Aurrera Ondarroa Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 51%

Second Half Goal 54%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Lagun Onak	Aurrera Ondarroa
Matches Played	35	30
Wins	18	5
Draws	7	8
Losses	10	17
Goals Scored	1.4	0.83
Goals Conceded	0.86	1.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Aurrera Ondarroa vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 52% - 56% Cards: 0 - 2

0:1

Nov 12, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Lagun Onak vs Aurrera Ondarroa

Possession: 48% - 48% Cards: 1 - 2

0:0

Feb 11, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Lagun Onak vs Aurrera Ondarroa

Possession: 55% - 47% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Oct 9, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Aurrera Ondarroa vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 56% - 56% Cards: 3 - 2

0:2

Feb 20, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Aurrera Ondarroa vs Lagun Onak

Possession: 52% - 49% Cards: 3 - 4

0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagun Onak 53 / 100

Aurrera Ondarroa 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Lagun Onak Aurrera Ondarroa

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagun Onak Win (1)

Secondary Pick Lagun Onak & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.7%

2.22

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +21.4%

3.57

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lagun Onak attacking → ← attacking Aurrera Ondarroa

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagun Onak scored in 69% of their last 35 games.

Aurrera Ondarroa let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Lagun Onak went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Aurrera Ondarroa lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

61 Points in last 5 23

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Vitoria	34	25	7	2	65:17	82
2	Basconia	34	18	10	6	54:32	64
3	Beasain	34	19	6	9	55:36	63
4	SD Deusto	34	17	10	7	45:29	61
5	Portugalete	34	17	9	8	54:32	60
6	Lagun Onak	34	16	9	9	43:33	57
7	SCD Durango	34	14	8	12	47:47	50
8	San Ignacio	34	12	11	11	49:44	47
9	Leioa	34	13	6	15	46:51	45
10	Urduliz FT	34	11	9	14	38:47	42
11	Derio	34	11	9	14	35:35	42
12	Alaves C	34	10	10	14	34:42	40
13	Touring KE	34	9	12	13	39:49	39
14	Padura	34	9	11	14	33:47	38
15	Pasaia	34	9	7	18	23:42	34
16	Anaitasuna FT	34	8	8	18	35:51	32
17	Aurrera Ondarroa	34	5	9	20	26:54	24
18	Anorga	34	3	9	22	31:64	18