Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lagun Onak vs Derio

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Sorazu J. M.
46' Event
Letamendia A.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-0, with Lagun Onak advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Lagun Onak
35%
Draws
32%
Derio
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lagun Onak come out ahead of Derio on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Lagun Onak have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Lagun Onak, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 20%
Derio Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagun Onak Derio
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 12
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.28 1.36
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs Lagun Onak
2:0
May 17, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Derio
2:0
Feb 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs Lagun Onak
0:1
Sep 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Derio
3:0
Jan 18, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs Lagun Onak
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagun Onak Compare

Top Goalscorer Sorazu J. M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Letamendia A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Derio Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagun Onak 32 / 100
Derio 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagun Onak Derio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagun Onak found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Derio has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Lagun Onak stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lagun Onak VS Derio
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagun Onak

(Home)
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0
San Ignacio
12 Sept
Real Sociedad C
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
05 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 1
Leioa
29 Aug
Lagun Onak
2 : 2
Beasain
24 May
Derio
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
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Derio

(Away)
16 Sept
Derio
3 : 5
Salamanca CF UDS
12 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 1
Derio
09 Sept
Compostela
1 : 2
Derio
05 Sept
Derio
0 : 0
Real Sociedad C
29 Aug
Derio
0 : 1
Sestao
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Leioa 3
Touring KE 3
Derio 2
Lagun Onak 2
Final
Leioa 2
Derio 0