Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lagun Onak vs UD Aretxabaleta - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Sanchez J.
(Penalty)
68' Event
Zumarraga E.
(Penalty)
87' Event
Tomas Carrasco A.

AI Match Summary

UD Aretxabaleta in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored UD Aretxabaleta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Lagun Onak
20%
Draws
46%
UD Aretxabaleta
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: UD Aretxabaleta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lagun Onak lately — more wins on the board than UD Aretxabaleta.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 19%
UD Aretxabaleta Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagun Onak UD Aretxabaleta
Matches Played 34 28
Wins 15 11
Draws 10 5
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.35 1.54
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs UD Aretxabaleta
1:2
Apr 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak
2:1
Dec 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs UD Aretxabaleta
2:0
Mar 30, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs UD Aretxabaleta
0:2
Nov 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
UD Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagun Onak Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

UD Aretxabaleta Compare

Top Goalscorer Tomas Carrasco A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagun Onak 32 / 100
UD Aretxabaleta 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagun Onak UD Aretxabaleta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagun Onak's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

UD Aretxabaleta has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Lagun Onak stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lagun Onak VS UD Aretxabaleta
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagun Onak

(Home)
10 Oct
Beasain
4 : 2
Lagun Onak
03 Oct
Lagun Onak
1 : 2
UD Aretxabaleta
27 Sept
Santurtzi
0 : 1
Lagun Onak
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0
San Ignacio
12 Sept
Real Sociedad C
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
Page 1 of 7

UD Aretxabaleta

(Away)
03 Oct
Lagun Onak
1 : 2
UD Aretxabaleta
26 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
1 : 2
Derio
19 Sept
SCD Durango
0 : 0
UD Aretxabaleta
13 Sept
UD Aretxabaleta
0 : 0
Beasain
05 Sept
Touring KE
0 : 1
UD Aretxabaleta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 6 4 1 1 10:8 13
2 Leioa 6 3 3 0 16:6 12
3 Derio 6 3 3 0 8:3 12
4 Real Sociedad C 6 3 2 1 11:8 11
5 Alaves C 6 3 1 2 13:6 10
6 Pasaia 5 3 1 1 7:6 10
7 San Ignacio 6 2 2 2 10:8 8
8 Touring KE 6 2 2 2 7:6 8
9 UD Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
10 Sodupe 6 2 2 2 5:9 8
11 SCD Durango 6 1 4 1 9:9 7
12 Beasain 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
13 Lagun Onak 6 2 1 3 6:9 7
14 SD Erandio 6 2 0 4 6:8 6
15 Santurtzi 6 2 0 4 3:7 6
16 Eibar C 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
17 Real Union B 6 1 2 3 7:12 5
18 Amurrio Club 6 0 1 5 1:13 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)