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Lamezia vs Athletic Palermo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Maimone G.
16' Event
Bonfiglio F.
59' Event
Panaro G. D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between Lamezia and Athletic Palermo finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Athletic Palermo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Lamezia
30%
Draws
47%
Athletic Palermo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Athletic Palermo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Athletic Palermo come out ahead of Lamezia on wins alone.
  • Athletic Palermo are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Lamezia Clean Sheet 13%
Athletic Palermo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lamezia Athletic Palermo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 8 14
Draws 9 4
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.38 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Lamezia vs Athletic Palermo
2:3
Sep 14, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Athletic Palermo vs Lamezia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lamezia Compare

Top Goalscorer Maimone G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Athletic Palermo Compare

Top Goalscorer Panaro G. D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bonfiglio F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lamezia 14 / 100
Athletic Palermo 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lamezia Athletic Palermo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Athletic Palermo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lamezia scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Athletic Palermo has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Lamezia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lamezia VS Athletic Palermo
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lamezia

(Home)
07 Oct
Lamezia
2 : 3
Gelbison
04 Oct
Lamezia
2 : 0
Castrumfavara
27 Sept
Sambiase
4 : 1
Lamezia
20 Sept
Lamezia
0 : 3
Reggina
16 Sept
USD Ragusa
1 : 1
Lamezia
Page 1 of 6

Athletic Palermo

(Away)
04 Oct
Gela
0 : 0
Athletic Palermo
27 Sept
Athletic Palermo
3 : 0
Milazzo
20 Sept
Vibonese
3 : 0
Athletic Palermo
16 Sept
Athletic Palermo
1 : 1
Digiesse PraiaTortora
13 Sept
Athletic Palermo
3 : 0
Enna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)