Sport Picks
Match Events
9'
9'
Bailey C.
11'
11'
Heath C.
41'
41'
Evangelinos N.
AI Match Summary
Lancaster in this NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lancaster.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
35%
24%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lancaster
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Lancaster haven't matched Leek Town's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- Regular NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Lancaster Clean Sheet 20%
Leek Town Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lancaster | Leek Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.39 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 14, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Leek Town
2:1
Oct 11, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Lancaster
0:1
Jan 18, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Lancaster
2:1
Oct 1, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Leek Town
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lancaster Compare
Top Goalscorer Bailey C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Evangelinos N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Leek Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Heath C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lancaster 32 / 100
Leek Town 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lancaster Leek Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lancaster scored in 79% of their last 28 games.
Leek Town let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Lancaster stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Lancaster VS Leek Town
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Lancaster
(Home) 15 Aug
Lancaster
1 : 2 Hyde
11 Aug
Lancaster
1 : 0 Warrington Rylands
08 Aug
Ashton United
4 : 1 Lancaster
21 Jul
Lancaster
2 : 2 Preston U21
25 Apr
Lancaster
2 : 0 Stocksbridge
Page 1 of 6
15 Aug
Lancaster
1 : 2 Hyde
11 Aug
Lancaster
1 : 0 Warrington Rylands
21 Jul
Lancaster
2 : 2 Preston U21
25 Apr
Lancaster
2 : 0 Stocksbridge
11 Apr
Lancaster
3 : 0 Gainsborough
Page 1 of 3
Leek Town
(Away) 15 Aug
Stockton
1 : 1 Leek Town
11 Aug
United of Manchester
1 : 1 Leek Town
08 Aug
Leek Town
1 : 2 Whitby
31 Jul
Leek Town
1 : 1 Runcorn Linnets
25 Jul
Stalybridge
1 : 1 Leek Town
Page 1 of 6
15 Aug
Stockton
1 : 1 Leek Town
11 Aug
United of Manchester
1 : 1 Leek Town
25 Jul
Stalybridge
1 : 1 Leek Town
21 Jul
Kidsgrove Athletic
0 : 1 Leek Town
25 Apr
Workington
0 : 1 Leek Town
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebburn Town | 40 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 75:41 | 79 |
| 2 | Hednesford | 40 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 62:35 | 77 |
| 3 | United of Manchester | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 65:41 | 72 |
| 4 | Warrington Rylands | 40 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 59:42 | 67 |
| 5 | Stockton | 40 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 62:50 | 63 |
| 6 | Lancaster | 40 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 56:45 | 62 |
| 7 | Gainsborough | 40 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 50:45 | 59 |
| 8 | Leek Town | 40 | 17 | 7 | 16 | 50:52 | 58 |
| 9 | Cleethorpes | 40 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 56:47 | 55 |
| 10 | Ashton United | 40 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 47:54 | 53 |
| 11 | Ilkeston | 40 | 15 | 7 | 18 | 52:54 | 52 |
| 12 | Bamber Bridge | 40 | 14 | 8 | 18 | 52:52 | 50 |
| 13 | Guiseley | 40 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 46:56 | 48 |
| 14 | Warrington Town | 40 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 43:63 | 48 |
| 15 | Hyde | 40 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 58:63 | 47 |
| 16 | Rushall | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 48:61 | 47 |
| 17 | Whitby | 40 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 43:55 | 43 |
| 18 | Workington | 40 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 43:58 | 43 |
| 19 | Prescot Cables | 40 | 9 | 15 | 16 | 40:50 | 42 |
| 20 | Morpeth | 40 | 12 | 6 | 22 | 38:54 | 42 |
| 21 | Stocksbridge | 40 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 38:65 | 36 |
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
