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Stadium Background

Lanzarote vs Arucas

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Sanchez Rodriguez T.
16' Event
Ibrahin P.
Own Goal
32' Event
Gopar M.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 game between Lanzarote and Arucas finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lanzarote.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Lanzarote
35%
Draws
36%
Arucas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Arucas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Lanzarote carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 29% — that's where the model lands on Lanzarote taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Lanzarote have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Lanzarote Clean Sheet 68%
Arucas Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lanzarote Arucas
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 12 11
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.22 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs Arucas
3:1
Nov 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Lanzarote
3:1
Apr 17, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs Arucas
1:0
Dec 6, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Arucas vs Lanzarote
2:3
Apr 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 12
Lanzarote vs Arucas
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lanzarote Compare

Top Goalscorer Sanchez Rodriguez T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gopar M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Arucas Compare

Top Goalscorer Perera K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lanzarote 50 / 100
Arucas 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lanzarote Arucas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lanzarote Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arucas let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Attacking prowess: Lanzarote scored in 69% of their last 32 outings.

Recent resilience: Lanzarote stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lanzarote VS Arucas
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lanzarote

(Home)
13 Sept
Lanzarote
1 : 1
San Miguel
06 Aug
Lanzarote
1 : 2
Arenas Getxo
10 May
Lanzarote
0 : 0
Real Union Tenerife
03 May
San Bartolome
1 : 1
Lanzarote
25 Apr
Tamaraceite
1 : 1
Lanzarote
Page 1 of 7

Arucas

(Away)
10 May
CD Marino
1 : 2
Arucas
03 May
Arucas
0 : 1
Mensajero
25 Apr
Tenerife C
1 : 1
Arucas
22 Apr
Union Sur Yaiza
3 : 0
Arucas
18 Apr
Arucas
0 : 0
San Bartolome
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Atletico Paso 34 18 13 3 51:19 67
2 UD San Fernando 34 19 9 6 49:23 66
3 Mensajero 34 18 9 7 51:31 63
4 Tamaraceite 34 19 6 9 56:36 63
5 Panaderia 34 15 10 9 47:33 55
6 Las Palmas C 34 15 9 10 58:42 54
7 Tenerife C 34 14 10 10 49:46 52
8 Villa Santa Brigida 34 15 5 14 42:35 50
9 Lanzarote 34 12 12 10 45:36 48
10 Real Union Tenerife 34 12 9 13 34:32 45
11 San Miguel 34 10 9 15 37:43 39
12 CD Marino 34 8 15 11 44:40 39
13 Union Sur Yaiza 34 10 8 16 33:43 38
14 San Bartolome 34 8 12 14 30:55 36
15 Arucas 34 7 12 15 31:47 33
16 Herbania 34 7 11 16 39:58 32
17 SD Tenisca 34 6 7 21 32:68 25
18 Telde 34 5 10 19 30:71 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 12 2025/2026 (Play Offs)