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LDU Quito vs Leones del Norte - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Copa Ecuador Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito
LDU Quito Logo

LDU Quito

6 - 0
FT
Leones del Norte Logo

Leones del Norte

Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Estrada M.
18' Event
Estrada M.
25' Event
Carabali J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 6-0. The second leg ended 6-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
LDU Quito
35%
Draws
25%
Leones del Norte
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: LDU Quito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Leones del Norte haven't matched LDU Quito's recent run of results.
  • LDU Quito are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • LDU Quito have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Leones del Norte, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 3 times recently and LDU Quito have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
LDU Quito Clean Sheet 68%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric LDU Quito Leones del Norte
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.3 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.76 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 30, 2026 Copa Ecuador
LDU Quito vs Leones del Norte
6:0
Jul 18, 2026 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs Leones del Norte
0:1
Mar 18, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs LDU Quito
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

LDU Quito Compare

Top Goalscorer Estrada M.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Carabali J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Leones del Norte Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

LDU Quito 68 / 100
Leones del Norte 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
LDU Quito Leones del Norte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LDU Quito Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

LDU Quito's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Leones del Norte has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

LDU Quito went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

LDU Quito VS Leones del Norte
1.13 Goals Scored 0.86
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.57
38% Over 1.5 71%
25% Over 2.5 43%
13% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

LDU Quito

(Home)
20 Sept
LDU Quito
2 : 1
U. Catolica
16 Sept
LDU Quito
3 : 3
Palmeiras
13 Sept
LDU Quito
1 : 1
Dep. Cuenca
09 Sept
Palmeiras
1 : 0
LDU Quito
05 Sept
Tecnico U.
1 : 3
LDU Quito
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Leones del Norte

(Away)
09 Oct
Libertad
3 : 0
Leones del Norte
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
13 Sept
Leones del Norte
0 : 1
Tecnico U.
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
LDU Quito -
TBD -
Africando 1
Independiente Juniors 2
Leones del Norte -
TBD -
Huaquillas FC 1
Rio Aguarico 0
Aucas -
TBD -
Guaranda 0
San Antonio 1
Dep. Cuenca -
TBD -
La Union 1
Cumbaya 0
Emelec -
TBD -
U.D. Juvenil 0
Daquilema 2
Guayaquil City -
TBD -
Astillero 2
22 de Julio 1
U. Catolica -
TBD -
Dunamis 1
EL Nacional 5
Orense -
TBD -
Domingo TSA 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle -
TBD -
Primero de Mayo 0
Dep. Santo Domingo 2
Manta -
TBD -
Nazareno 0
Nueve de Octubre 4
Mushuc Runa -
TBD -
Dep. Quito 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara -
TBD -
Quito 2
CD Cuenca Juniors 3
Barcelona SC -
TBD -
Insutec 4
Club Deportivo Ibarra 3
Libertad -
TBD -
Ind. Azogues 0
LDU Portoviejo 5
Delfin -
TBD -
Banos 2
Anaconda 1
Tecnico U. -
TBD -
Juventud Italiana 2
Atletico FC 1
1/16-finals
LDU Quito 2
Independiente Juniors 1
Leones del Norte 1
Huaquillas FC 0
Aucas 3
San Antonio 0
Dep. Cuenca 0
La Union 1
Emelec 0
Daquilema 1
Guayaquil City 1
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 4
EL Nacional 1
Orense 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 2
Dep. Santo Domingo 0
Manta 1
Nueve de Octubre 0
Mushuc Runa 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara 1
CD Cuenca Juniors 0
Barcelona SC 4
Insutec 2
Libertad 1
LDU Portoviejo 2
Delfin 2
Banos 0
Tecnico U. 0
Juventud Italiana 2
1/8-finals
LDU Quito 6
Leones del Norte 0
Aucas 2
La Union 1
Daquilema 0
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 3
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 1
Manta 0
Gualaceo 2
Macara 1
Barcelona SC 0
LDU Portoviejo 3
Delfin 1
Juventud Italiana 0
Quarter-finals
LDU Quito 1
Aucas 0
Astillero 0
U. Catolica 1
Independiente del Valle 2
Gualaceo 0
LDU Portoviejo 0
Delfin 2
Semi-finals
LDU Quito -
U. Catolica -
Independiente del Valle -
Delfin -
Final
TBD -
TBD -