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LDU Quito vs Leones del Norte - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito
Our Tip

Match Events

3'
Luna Tobar C.
17'
Sub
Alvarado A. In: Gonzalez Baquero S.
Out: Alvarado A.
45' Event
Luque M.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between LDU Quito and Leones del Norte finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leones del Norte.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
LDU Quito
35%
Draws
25%
Leones del Norte
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: LDU Quito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and LDU Quito come out ahead of Leones del Norte on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans LDU Quito's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • LDU Quito have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 54.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
LDU Quito Clean Sheet 68%
Leones del Norte Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric LDU Quito Leones del Norte
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 16 11
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.3 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.76 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 30, 2026 Copa Ecuador
LDU Quito vs Leones del Norte
6:0
Jul 18, 2026 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs Leones del Norte
0:1
Mar 18, 2026 Liga Pro
Leones del Norte vs LDU Quito
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

LDU Quito Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Leones del Norte Compare

Top Goalscorer Luque M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

LDU Quito 68 / 100
Leones del Norte 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
LDU Quito Leones del Norte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LDU Quito Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

LDU Quito found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (33 games).

Leones del Norte let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: LDU Quito stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

LDU Quito VS Leones del Norte
1.13 Goals Scored 0.86
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.57
38% Over 1.5 71%
25% Over 2.5 43%
13% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

LDU Quito

(Home)
20 Sept
LDU Quito
2 : 1
U. Catolica
16 Sept
LDU Quito
3 : 3
Palmeiras
13 Sept
LDU Quito
1 : 1
Dep. Cuenca
09 Sept
Palmeiras
1 : 0
LDU Quito
05 Sept
Tecnico U.
1 : 3
LDU Quito
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Leones del Norte

(Away)
09 Oct
Libertad
3 : 0
Leones del Norte
19 Sept
Guayaquil City
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
13 Sept
Leones del Norte
0 : 1
Tecnico U.
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
03 Sept
Leones del Norte
1 : 0
Orense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)