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LDU Quito vs Mirassol Prediction & H2H Stats

South America South America

Copa Libertadores Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito
Thu, Aug 20, 2026
1 - 0
10:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Denilson
44'
Ade R.
45'
Chico Kim

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
LDU Quito
30%
Draws
39%
Mirassol
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mirassol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • LDU Quito carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • LDU Quito have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor LDU Quito, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
LDU Quito Clean Sheet 23%
Mirassol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric LDU Quito Mirassol
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 9 8
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.33 1.28
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2026 Copa Libertadores
LDU Quito vs Mirassol
1:0
Aug 13, 2026 Copa Libertadores
Mirassol vs LDU Quito
1:1
May 7, 2026 Copa Libertadores
Mirassol vs LDU Quito
2:0
Apr 15, 2026 Copa Libertadores
LDU Quito vs Mirassol
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

LDU Quito 37 / 100
Mirassol 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
LDU Quito Mirassol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mirassol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Mirassol conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

LDU Quito found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

LDU Quito has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

LDU Quito VS Mirassol
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

LDU Quito

(Home)
20 Sept
LDU Quito
2 : 1
U. Catolica
16 Sept
LDU Quito
3 : 3
Palmeiras
13 Sept
LDU Quito
1 : 1
Dep. Cuenca
09 Sept
Palmeiras
1 : 0
LDU Quito
05 Sept
Tecnico U.
1 : 3
LDU Quito
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Mirassol

(Away)
27 Sept
Uberlandia
0 : 4
Mirassol
19 Sept
Mirassol
2 : 0
Botafogo RJ
13 Sept
Mirassol
2 : 2
Vitoria
06 Sept
Coritiba
1 : 2
Mirassol
02 Sept
Flamengo RJ
2 : 0
Mirassol
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Estudiantes L.P. 4
U. Catolica 1
Rosario Central 0
Corinthians 1
Deportes Tolima 1
Independiente del Valle 4
Cruzeiro 2
Flamengo RJ 3
Mirassol 1
LDU Quito 2
Palmeiras 2
Cerro Porteno 1
Platense 2
Coquimbo 1
Fluminense 2
Ind. Rivadavia 1
Quarter-finals
Estudiantes L.P. 2
Corinthians 1
Independiente del Valle 1
Flamengo RJ 3
LDU Quito 3
Palmeiras 4
Platense 2
Fluminense 3
Semi-finals
Estudiantes L.P. -
Flamengo RJ -
Palmeiras -
Fluminense -
Final
TBD -
TBD -