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Lebanon vs Malaysia Prediction & H2H Stats

Asia Asia

Merdeka Cup Bukit Jalil National Stadium, Kuala Lumpur
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Match Events

9'
Khamis K.
21'
Darwiche K.
33' Event
Morales R.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Lebanon
15%
Draws
37%
Malaysia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lebanon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Malaysia haven't matched Lebanon's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Lebanon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Malaysia, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Lebanon have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
Lebanon Clean Sheet 68%
Malaysia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lebanon Malaysia
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 14
Draws 5 5
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.59 1.54
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.16
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2024 Merdeka Cup
Lebanon vs Malaysia
0:1
Mar 27, 2018 Asian Cup
Lebanon vs Malaysia
2:1
Jun 13, 2017 Asian Cup
Malaysia vs Lebanon
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lebanon Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Malaysia Compare

Top Goalscorer Morales R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.05
Avg xA / game 0.64

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lebanon 41 / 100
Malaysia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lebanon Malaysia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lebanon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Malaysia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

Lebanon has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Lebanon scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Lebanon VS Malaysia
2 Goals Scored 1.75
0.57 Goals Conceded 1.13
71% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lebanon

(Home)
01 Oct
Maldives
0 : 6
Lebanon
04 Jun
Lebanon
0 : 2
Yemen
26 Nov
Sudan
2 : 1
Lebanon
18 Nov
Brunei
0 : 3
Lebanon
14 Oct
Bhutan
0 : 4
Lebanon
Page 1 of 6

Malaysia

(Away)
01 Oct
Malaysia
6 : 0
Singapore
28 Sept
Malaysia
0 : 0
Indonesia
25 Sept
Bangladesh
0 : 3
Malaysia
19 Aug
Vietnam
2 : 0
Malaysia
16 Aug
Malaysia
0 : 2
Vietnam
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Lebanon 1
Tajikistan 0
Malaysia 2
Philippines 1
Final
Lebanon 0
Malaysia 1
Tajikistan 1
Philippines 0