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Lebanon vs Maldives Prediction & H2H Stats

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SAFF Championship 2023 Sree Kanteerava Stadium, Bangalore
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Match Events

23' Event
Maatouk H.
46'
Sub
Kourani H. In: Michel Melki F.
Out: Kourani H.
46'
Sub
Dakramanji A. R. In: Zein M.
Out: Dakramanji A. R.

AI Match Summary

The SAFF Championship 2023 game between Lebanon and Maldives finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lebanon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Lebanon
15%
Draws
8%
Maldives
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lebanon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Lebanon carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 77% — that's where the model lands on Lebanon taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this SAFF Championship 2023 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Lebanon have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Lebanon Clean Sheet 68%
Maldives Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lebanon Maldives
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 13 8
Draws 5 3
Losses 9 18
Goals Scored 1.33 0.86
Goals Conceded 0.85 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2023 SAFF Championship
Lebanon vs Maldives
1:0
Apr 23, 2008 Asian Cup
Maldives vs Lebanon
1:2
Apr 9, 2008 Asian Cup
Lebanon vs Maldives
4:0
Sep 8, 2004 World Championship
Maldives vs Lebanon
2:5
Jun 9, 2004 World Championship
Lebanon vs Maldives
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lebanon Compare

Top Goalscorer Maatouk H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Maldives Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lebanon 95 / 100
Maldives 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lebanon Maldives

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lebanon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Maldives's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Solid form: Lebanon remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Maldives has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lebanon VS Maldives
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lebanon

(Home)
04 Jun
Lebanon
0 : 2
Yemen
26 Nov
Sudan
2 : 1
Lebanon
18 Nov
Brunei
0 : 3
Lebanon
14 Oct
Bhutan
0 : 4
Lebanon
09 Oct
Lebanon
2 : 0
Bhutan
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Maldives

(Away)
28 Sept
Kyrgyzstan
5 : 0
Maldives
24 Sept
China
3 : 0
Maldives
07 Jun
Maldives
1 : 1
Bangladesh U23
04 Jun
Maldives
0 : 3
Pakistan
01 Jun
Maldives
0 : 1
Afghanistan
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kuwait 3 2 1 0 8:2 7
2 India 3 2 1 0 7:1 7
3 Nepal 3 1 0 2 2:5 3
4 Pakistan 3 0 0 3 0:9 0
Promotion - SAFF Championship 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lebanon 3 3 0 0 7:1 9
2 Bangladesh 3 2 0 1 6:4 6
3 Maldives 3 1 0 2 3:4 3
4 Bhutan 3 0 0 3 2:9 0
Promotion - SAFF Championship 2023 (Play Offs)