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Lebanon vs Timor-Leste - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International 2025 Al Khor Stadium, Al Khor
Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
Osman M.
85' Event
Budib P.
90' Event
Merheg S. J.

AI Match Summary

Lebanon in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lebanon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Lebanon
15%
Draws
12%
Timor-Leste
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lebanon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lebanon lately — more wins on the board than Timor-Leste.
  • Lebanon are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24%
Lebanon Clean Sheet 68%
Timor-Leste Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lebanon Timor-Leste
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 6
Draws 5 3
Losses 10 21
Goals Scored 1.59 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.93 2.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2025 Friendly International
Lebanon vs Timor-Leste
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lebanon Compare

Top Goalscorer Merheg S. J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Osman M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Timor-Leste Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lebanon 95 / 100
Timor-Leste 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lebanon Timor-Leste

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lebanon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Timor-Leste conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Difficult form: Timor-Leste registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Lebanon found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Lebanon VS Timor-Leste
2.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Lebanon

(Home)
04 Oct
Kyrgyzstan
3 : 1
Lebanon
01 Oct
Maldives
0 : 6
Lebanon
04 Jun
Lebanon
0 : 2
Yemen
26 Nov
Sudan
2 : 1
Lebanon
18 Nov
Brunei
0 : 3
Lebanon
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Timor-Leste

(Away)
30 Sept
Timor-Leste
2 : 2
Cambodia
24 Sept
Myanmar
2 : 0
Timor-Leste
03 Aug
Cambodia
3 : 0
Timor-Leste
31 Jul
Timor-Leste
0 : 3
Indonesia
27 Jul
Singapore
2 : 0
Timor-Leste
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