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Leca vs Penalva do Castelo

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 game between Leca and Penalva do Castelo finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

77%
Leca
15%
Draws
8%
Penalva do Castelo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / Very High Confidence
  • Leca carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Leca's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Leca Clean Sheet 20%
Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leca Penalva do Castelo
Matches Played 46 30
Wins 30 5
Draws 10 7
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 2.02 0.7
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 3.19 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs Penalva do Castelo
2:0
Jan 13, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Penalva do Castelo vs Leca
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leca 85 / 100
Penalva do Castelo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leca Penalva do Castelo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leca's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 46 recent games.

Penalva do Castelo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Leca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Leca VS Penalva do Castelo
2.38 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 4
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Leca

(Home)
20 Sept
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Leca
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
Page 1 of 10

Penalva do Castelo

(Away)
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
12 May
Leca
2 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
05 May
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 2
Coimbroes
28 Apr
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 0
Paredes
20 Apr
Cinfaes
2 : 1
Penalva do Castelo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Espinho 34 20 9 5 52:20 69
2 Lusitania FC 34 19 12 3 52:27 69
3 Gondomar 34 18 10 6 50:22 64
4 Agueda 34 16 12 6 43:26 60
5 Lusitano FCV 34 17 8 9 59:28 59
6 Sanjoanense 34 15 10 9 44:34 55
7 Amarante FC 34 15 9 10 45:28 54
8 Coimbroes 34 13 10 11 43:39 49
9 Maritimo B 34 12 13 9 53:40 49
10 Paredes 34 13 7 14 42:33 46
11 U. Madeira 34 12 8 14 28:35 44
12 Leca 34 12 7 15 34:41 43
13 Pedras Rubras 34 9 15 10 36:43 42
14 Cinfaes 34 11 8 15 33:40 41
15 Gafanha 34 11 4 19 46:69 37
16 Penalva do Castelo 34 7 7 20 27:66 28
17 FC Cesarense 34 4 13 17 37:55 25
18 Meda 34 0 2 32 21:99 2
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)