Sport Picks

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Lecce vs AS Roma

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Mon, Aug 31, 2026
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lecce host AS Roma in the Serie A. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Lecce at 0.9 goals for, 1.31 against; AS Roma at 1.97 for, 1.35 against. Head-to-head, Lecce have won 0 to AS Roma's 4, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 22, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.63 vs 1.69, favoring AS Roma. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Lecce
30%
Draws
29%
AS Roma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lecce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • AS Roma have won more games recently than Lecce.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Lecce taking it.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • AS Roma have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Lecce Clean Sheet 13%
AS Roma Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lecce AS Roma
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 9 15
Draws 5 8
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 0.9 1.97
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.35
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie A
AS Roma vs Lecce
1:0
Jan 6, 2026 Serie A
Lecce vs AS Roma
0:2
Mar 29, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs AS Roma
0:1
Dec 7, 2024 Serie A
AS Roma vs Lecce
4:1
Apr 1, 2024 Serie A
Lecce vs AS Roma
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lecce 57 / 100
AS Roma 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lecce AS Roma

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lecce Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AS Roma let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Lecce remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Lecce's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Lecce VS AS Roma
1.63 Goals Scored 2.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
38% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Lecce

(Home)
17 Aug
Palermo
2 : 0
Lecce
09 Aug
Lecce
1 : 0
Monopoli
29 Jul
Lecce
5 : 2
Bistrica
25 Jul
Lecce
2 : 2
Istra 1961
22 Jul
Lecce
0 : 1
Politehnica Timisoara
Page 1 of 6

AS Roma

(Away)
15 Aug
Dortmund
2 : 2
AS Roma
08 Aug
Brighton
3 : 0
AS Roma
04 Aug
Newport
1 : 4
AS Roma
01 Aug
Cardiff
4 : 1
AS Roma
26 Jul
Cannes
3 : 3
AS Roma
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lecce 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Bologna 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Frosinone 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Genoa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 Napoli 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Udinese 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Monza 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Sassuolo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Venezia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 AS Roma 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Inter 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 Juventus 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Fiorentina 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 AC Milan 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Lazio 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 Cagliari 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Torino 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
19 Parma 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
20 Como 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)