Sport Picks
Match Events
11'
11'
Sub
Gosens R. In: Balbo L.
Out: Gosens R.
30'
30'
Harrison J.
Assist: Mandragora R.
56'
56'
Sub
Ndri K. In: Banda L.
Out: Ndri K.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lecce
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Fiorentina lately — more wins on the board than Lecce.
- Model gives Lecce a 39% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Lecce Clean Sheet 68%
Fiorentina Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lecce | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 13 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 1.52 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.21 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 20, 2026 Serie A
Lecce vs Fiorentina
1:1
Nov 2, 2025 Serie A
Fiorentina vs Lecce
0:1
Feb 28, 2025 Serie A
Fiorentina vs Lecce
1:0
Oct 20, 2024 Serie A
Lecce vs Fiorentina
0:6
Feb 2, 2024 Serie A
Lecce vs Fiorentina
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lecce Compare
Top Goalscorer Oliveira T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Fiorentina Compare
Top Goalscorer Harrison J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lecce 68 / 100
Fiorentina 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lecce Fiorentina
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lecce Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Fiorentina conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Lecce went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Lecce found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).
Scoring Trends
Lecce VS Fiorentina
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Lecce
(Home) 09 Aug
Lecce
1 : 0 Monopoli
29 Jul
Lecce
5 : 2 Bistrica
25 Jul
Lecce
2 : 2 Istra 1961
22 Jul
Lecce
0 : 1 Politehnica Timisoara
19 Jul
Haladas
0 : 1 Lecce
Page 1 of 6
09 Aug
Lecce
1 : 0 Monopoli
29 Jul
Lecce
5 : 2 Bistrica
25 Jul
Lecce
2 : 2 Istra 1961
22 Jul
Lecce
0 : 1 Politehnica Timisoara
24 May
Lecce
1 : 0 Genoa
Page 1 of 4
Fiorentina
(Away) 06 Aug
Fiorentina
1 : 1 Dep. A Coruna
01 Aug
Real Madrid
2 : 2 Fiorentina
29 Jul
Watford
0 : 1 Fiorentina
25 Jul
QPR
3 : 2 Fiorentina
22 Jul
Fiorentina
1 : 0 Gubbio
Page 1 of 6
01 Aug
Real Madrid
2 : 2 Fiorentina
29 Jul
Watford
0 : 1 Fiorentina
25 Jul
QPR
3 : 2 Fiorentina
17 May
Juventus
0 : 2 Fiorentina
04 May
AS Roma
4 : 0 Fiorentina
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 89:35 | 87 |
| 2 | Napoli | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 58:36 | 76 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 59:31 | 73 |
| 4 | Como | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 65:29 | 71 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 53:35 | 70 |
| 6 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 61:34 | 69 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 51:36 | 59 |
| 8 | Bologna | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 49:46 | 56 |
| 9 | Lazio | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 41:40 | 54 |
| 10 | Udinese | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 45:48 | 50 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 46:50 | 49 |
| 12 | Torino | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 44:63 | 45 |
| 13 | Parma | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 28:46 | 45 |
| 14 | Cagliari | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 40:53 | 43 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 41:50 | 42 |
| 16 | Genoa | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41:51 | 41 |
| 17 | Lecce | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 28:50 | 38 |
| 18 | Cremonese | 38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 32:57 | 34 |
| 19 | Verona | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 25:61 | 21 |
| 20 | Pisa | 38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 26:71 | 18 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B (Main)
