Sport Picks
Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia
Poland
Ekstraklasa 2025/2026 Stadion Poznan, Poznań 
Match Events
22'
22'
Gojny D.
25'
25'
Sub
Perea L. In: Rzuchowski M.
Out: Perea L.
46'
46'
Sub
Milic A. In: Gumny R.
Out: Milic A.
AI Match Summary
The Ekstraklasa 2025/2026 game between Lech Poznan and Arka Gdynia finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Lech Poznan
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Lech Poznan carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Lech Poznan a 90% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Lech Poznan Clean Sheet 20%
Arka Gdynia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lech Poznan | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 18 | 10 |
| Draws | 4 | 7 |
| Losses | 7 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 2.63 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.75 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.63 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.75 | 2.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 8, 2026 Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Ekstraklasa
Arka Gdynia vs Lech Poznan
3:1
Dec 7, 2023 Polish Cup
Arka Gdynia vs Lech Poznan
0:1
Jul 9, 2021 Club Friendly
Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia
0:2
Dec 19, 2019 Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lech Poznan Compare
Top Goalscorer Palma L.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31
Arka Gdynia Compare
Top Goalscorer Hermoso K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lech Poznan 85 / 100
Arka Gdynia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lech Poznan Arka Gdynia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LEC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lech Poznan's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Lech Poznan has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Arka Gdynia has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Lech Poznan VS Arka Gdynia
2.63 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Lech Poznan
(Home) 21 Jul
Aarhus
1 : 4 Lech Poznan
16 Jul
Lech Poznan
3 : 1 Gornik Zabrze
11 Jul
Lech Poznan
4 : 0 Bohemians 1905
04 Jul
Lech Poznan
3 : 1 Podbrezova
23 May
Lech Poznan
2 : 2 Wisla Plock
Page 1 of 6
16 Jul
Lech Poznan
3 : 1 Gornik Zabrze
11 Jul
Lech Poznan
4 : 0 Bohemians 1905
04 Jul
Lech Poznan
3 : 1 Podbrezova
23 May
Lech Poznan
2 : 2 Wisla Plock
08 May
Lech Poznan
1 : 1 Arka Gdynia
Page 1 of 4
Arka Gdynia
(Away) 18 Jul
Arka Gdynia
2 : 0 Luzino
11 Jul
Arka Gdynia
2 : 4 Ol. Grudziadz
03 Jul
Arka Gdynia
2 : 0 Petrolul
28 Jun
GKS Katowice
2 : 0 Arka Gdynia
23 May
Rakow Czestochowa
3 : 0 Arka Gdynia
Page 1 of 6
28 Jun
GKS Katowice
2 : 0 Arka Gdynia
23 May
Rakow Czestochowa
3 : 0 Arka Gdynia
08 May
Lech Poznan
1 : 1 Arka Gdynia
27 Apr
Piast Gliwice
4 : 1 Arka Gdynia
12 Apr
Cracovia
2 : 2 Arka Gdynia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 62:45 | 60 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 50:38 | 56 |
| 3 | Jagiellonia | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 56:41 | 56 |
| 4 | Rakow Czestochowa | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 51:40 | 55 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 51:45 | 50 |
| 6 | Legia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 42:37 | 49 |
| 7 | Zaglebie | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 45:38 | 48 |
| 8 | Wisla Plock | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 34:38 | 46 |
| 9 | Pogon Szczecin | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 47:49 | 45 |
| 10 | Radomiak Radom | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 52:53 | 44 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 40:40 | 43 |
| 12 | Motor Lublin | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 46:53 | 43 |
| 13 | Cracovia | 34 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 39:42 | 42 |
| 14 | Widzew Lodz | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 41:41 | 42 |
| 15 | Piast Gliwice | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 42:46 | 41 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 62:65 | 38 |
| 17 | Arka Gdynia | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 34:61 | 36 |
| 18 | Termalica Bruk-Bet | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 43:65 | 34 |
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Division 1 (Main)