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Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze

Poland Poland

Super Cup Stadion Poznan
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Khlan M.
Assist: Urbanski K.
27' Event
Kozubal A.
Assist: Walemark P.
40'
Sub
Kubicki J. In: Donio B.
Out: Kubicki J.

AI Match Summary

Lech Poznan in this Super Cup matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lech Poznan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Lech Poznan
6%
Draws
4%
Gornik Zabrze
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Lech Poznan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Lech Poznan have won more games recently than Gornik Zabrze.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Lech Poznan taking it.
  • It's a cup tie, so expect more urgency than a normal Super Cup game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Lech Poznan Clean Sheet 18%
Gornik Zabrze Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lech Poznan Gornik Zabrze
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 19 16
Draws 4 6
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 2.63 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2026 Super Cup
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze
3:1
Mar 4, 2026 Polish Cup
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze
0:1
Feb 7, 2026 Ekstraklasa
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan
0:1
Aug 2, 2025 Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze
2:1
Dec 6, 2024 Ekstraklasa
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lech Poznan Compare

Top Goalscorer Kozubal A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ishak M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Gornik Zabrze Compare

Top Goalscorer Khlan M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lech Poznan 85 / 100
Gornik Zabrze 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lech Poznan Gornik Zabrze

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lech Poznan found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Lech Poznan went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Gornik Zabrze has conceded goals in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lech Poznan VS Gornik Zabrze
2.63 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Lech Poznan3
Gornik Zabrze1