Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lech Poznan vs KuPS

Europe Europe

Conference League 2025/2026 Stadion Poznan, Poznań
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Sub
Puukko A. In: Tikkanen R.
Out: Puukko A.
29'
Milic A.
60'
Sub
Ismaheel T. In: Hakans D.
Out: Ismaheel T.

AI Match Summary

Lech Poznan in this Conference League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Lech Poznan
20%
Draws
38%
KuPS
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lech Poznan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lech Poznan lately — more wins on the board than KuPS.
  • Lech Poznan are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Lech Poznan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Lech Poznan, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Lech Poznan Clean Sheet 68%
KuPS Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lech Poznan KuPS
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 20 14
Draws 6 9
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 2.37 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 26, 2026 Conference League
Lech Poznan vs KuPS
1:0
Feb 19, 2026 Conference League
KuPS vs Lech Poznan
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lech Poznan Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

KuPS Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lech Poznan 50 / 100
KuPS 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lech Poznan KuPS

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lech Poznan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lech Poznan's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

KuPS has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Lech Poznan stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lech Poznan VS KuPS
3 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lech Poznan

(Home)
20 Sept
Lech Poznan
5 : 1
Radomiak Radom
17 Sept
Crystal Palace
4 : 0
Lech Poznan
12 Sept
Gornik Zabrze
2 : 1
Lech Poznan
06 Sept
Lech Poznan
1 : 0
Rakow Czestochowa
03 Sept
Lech Poznan
2 : 1
Jagiellonia
Page 1 of 6

KuPS

(Away)
19 Sept
VPS
0 : 2
KuPS
13 Sept
KuPS
0 : 0
HJK
08 Sept
Gnistan
1 : 1
KuPS
31 Aug
Inter Turku
1 : 0
KuPS
27 Aug
KuPS
1 : 0
Shamrock Rovers
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
KuPS 0
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar -
TBD -
Noah 1
AZ Alkmaar 4
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
Zrinjski 1
Crystal Palace 3
AEK Larnaca -
TBD -
Jagiellonia 4
Fiorentina 5
Rakow Czestochowa -
TBD -
Shkendija Tetovo 0
Samsunspor 5
Rayo Vallecano -
TBD -
Drita 4
Celje 6
AEK -
TBD -
Sigma Olomouc 3
Lausanne 2
Mainz -
TBD -
Omonia 1
Rijeka 4
Strasbourg -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar 4
AZ Alkmaar 6
Sparta Prague 1
Crystal Palace 2
AEK Larnaca 1
Fiorentina 4
Rakow Czestochowa 2
Samsunspor 2
Rayo Vallecano 3
Celje 2
AEK 4
Sigma Olomouc 0
Mainz 2
Rijeka 2
Strasbourg 3
Quarter-finals
Shakhtar 5
AZ Alkmaar 2
Crystal Palace 4
Fiorentina 2
Rayo Vallecano 4
AEK 3
Mainz 2
Strasbourg 4
Semi-finals
Shakhtar 2
Crystal Palace 5
Rayo Vallecano 2
Strasbourg 0
Final
Crystal Palace 1
Rayo Vallecano 0