Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Legionowo vs Ursus Warszawa

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

58' Event
Muniak S.
68' Event
Koziara P.
82' Event
Zjawinski D.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 game between Legionowo and Ursus Warszawa finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Legionowo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Legionowo
20%
Draws
38%
Ursus Warszawa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Legionowo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Ursus Warszawa haven't matched Legionowo's recent run of results.
  • Legionowo are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular III Liga - Group I 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Legionowo Clean Sheet 11%
Ursus Warszawa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Legionowo Ursus Warszawa
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 9 6
Losses 16 19
Goals Scored 1.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.88 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2023 III Liga - Group I
Legionowo vs Ursus Warszawa
2:1
Oct 15, 2022 III Liga - Group I
Ursus Warszawa vs Legionowo
1:3
Mar 19, 2022 III Liga - Group I
Ursus Warszawa vs Legionowo
2:3
Aug 18, 2021 III Liga - Group I
Legionowo vs Ursus Warszawa
2:3
Sep 6, 2020 III Liga - Group I
Legionowo vs Ursus Warszawa
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Legionowo Compare

Top Goalscorer Koziara P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zjawinski D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Ursus Warszawa Compare

Top Goalscorer Muniak S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Legionowo 40 / 100
Ursus Warszawa 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Legionowo Ursus Warszawa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ursus Warszawa has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Legionowo scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

Legionowo has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Legionowo VS Ursus Warszawa
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Legionowo

(Home)
22 Feb
Pelikan
3 : 1
Legionowo
08 Feb
Legionowo
3 : 2
Wilga Garwolin
05 Jun
Legionowo
2 : 2
Bron Radom
02 Jun
Pelikan
2 : 1
Legionowo
25 May
Legionowo
0 : 0
Legia II
Page 1 of 7

Ursus Warszawa

(Away)
15 Feb
Biala Podlaska
1 : 1
Ursus Warszawa
08 Feb
Ursus Warszawa
4 : 1
Mszczonowianka Mszczonow
01 Feb
Ursus Warszawa
2 : 6
Victoria Sulejowek
20 Jul
LKS Lomza
0 : 0
Ursus Warszawa
17 Feb
Warta Sieradz
2 : 0
Ursus Warszawa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1LKS Lodz II34208676:4168
2Legionowo341810671:4364
3Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki341810662:3964
4Swit Mazowiecki34187966:4561
5Legia II341510966:4855
6Tomaszow Mazowiecki341510951:4355
7Unia Skierniewice341581141:3853
8MKS Mlawa341571283:7152
9Jagiellonia II3413101165:5449
10Pilica Bialobrzegi341291353:5545
11Pelikan341291356:5245
12Sokol Ostroda341061849:7136
13Olimpia Zambrow34991640:6336
14Bron Radom34981760:7635
15Warta Sieradz348101639:5334
16Concordia Elblag34891738:6133
17Blonianka Blonie34862035:6830
18Ursus Warszawa345101942:7225
Promotion - Division 2 2023/2024 (Main)