Sport Picks
Leioa vs Aurrera Ondarroa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 
Match Events
14'
14'
Blanco A.
89'
89'
Hernandez D.
AI Match Summary
Leioa in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leioa.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
20%
22%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leioa
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Leioa lately — more wins on the board than Aurrera Ondarroa.
- 58% — that's where the model lands on Leioa taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Leioa Clean Sheet 68%
Aurrera Ondarroa Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leioa | Aurrera Ondarroa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 40 | 30 |
| Wins | 20 | 5 |
| Draws | 9 | 8 |
| Losses | 11 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.42 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera Ondarroa vs Leioa
1:0
Nov 25, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Aurrera Ondarroa
2:0
Jan 22, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Aurrera Ondarroa vs Leioa
1:1
Sep 18, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Aurrera Ondarroa
3:1
Jan 15, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Aurrera Ondarroa
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leioa Compare
Top Goalscorer Blanco A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Hernandez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.09
Avg xA / game 0.71
Aurrera Ondarroa Compare
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leioa 77 / 100
Aurrera Ondarroa 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leioa Aurrera Ondarroa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Leioa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Leioa's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 40 recent games.
Aurrera Ondarroa let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.
Leioa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Leioa VS -
1.63 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Leioa
(Home) 04 Oct
Amurrio Club
0 : 5 Leioa
26 Sept
Leioa
2 : 1 Eibar C
20 Sept
Real Union B
3 : 3 Leioa
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1 Pasaia
09 Sept
Bergantinos
5 : 0 Leioa
Page 1 of 8
26 Sept
Leioa
2 : 1 Eibar C
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1 Pasaia
19 Aug
Leioa
1 : 1 Portugalete
18 Jul
Leioa
0 : 11 Ath Bilbao
13 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0 Albacete B
Page 1 of 4
Aurrera Ondarroa
(Away) 11 May
Urduliz FT
1 : 3 Aurrera Ondarroa
05 May
Aurrera Ondarroa
1 : 2 Basconia
01 May
Anorga
3 : 2 Aurrera Ondarroa
27 Apr
Aurrera Ondarroa
1 : 3 Alaves C
20 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0 Aurrera Ondarroa
Page 1 of 6
11 May
Urduliz FT
1 : 3 Aurrera Ondarroa
01 May
Anorga
3 : 2 Aurrera Ondarroa
20 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0 Aurrera Ondarroa
05 Apr
SCD Durango
3 : 2 Aurrera Ondarroa
23 Mar
CD Vitoria
3 : 1 Aurrera Ondarroa
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Vitoria | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 65:17 | 82 |
| 2 | Basconia | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 54:32 | 64 |
| 3 | Beasain | 34 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 55:36 | 63 |
| 4 | SD Deusto | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 45:29 | 61 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 54:32 | 60 |
| 6 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 43:33 | 57 |
| 7 | SCD Durango | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 47:47 | 50 |
| 8 | San Ignacio | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 49:44 | 47 |
| 9 | Leioa | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 46:51 | 45 |
| 10 | Urduliz FT | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 38:47 | 42 |
| 11 | Derio | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 35:35 | 42 |
| 12 | Alaves C | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 34:42 | 40 |
| 13 | Touring KE | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39:49 | 39 |
| 14 | Padura | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 33:47 | 38 |
| 15 | Pasaia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 23:42 | 34 |
| 16 | Anaitasuna FT | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 35:51 | 32 |
| 17 | Aurrera Ondarroa | 34 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 26:54 | 24 |
| 18 | Anorga | 34 | 3 | 9 | 22 | 31:64 | 18 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
