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Leioa vs Eibar C

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Fuente M.
40' Event
Garces U.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Leioa
15%
Draws
45%
Eibar C
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Eibar C

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Leioa have won more games recently than Eibar C.
  • Model gives Eibar C a 45% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Leioa have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 47.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Leioa Clean Sheet 10%
Eibar C Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leioa Eibar C
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.29 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 1.91
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Eibar C
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Eibar C vs Leioa
0:1
May 10, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Eibar C vs Leioa
2:5
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Eibar C
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leioa Compare

Top Goalscorer Garces U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7

Eibar C Compare

Top Goalscorer Fuente M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.74
Avg xA / game 1.06

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leioa 10 / 100
Eibar C 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leioa Eibar C

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Eibar C Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Eibar C let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.25 goals as a typical output.

Leioa scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Leioa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leioa VS Eibar C
1.5 Goals Scored 2.43
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.29
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 71%
38% Over 3.5 57%

Recent Form & Match History

Leioa

(Home)
18 Jul
Leioa
0 : 11
Ath Bilbao
21 Jun
Albacete B
2 : 0
Leioa
13 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Albacete B
06 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Derio
31 May
Derio
0 : 1
Leioa
Page 1 of 7

Eibar C

(Away)
14 Aug
Eibar C
3 : 1
Santurtzi
09 May
Eibar C
3 : 0
Pasaia
03 May
Lagun Onak
1 : 1
Eibar C
26 Apr
Eibar C
5 : 0
SD Deusto
17 Apr
Portugalete
4 : 2
Eibar C
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)