Sport Picks
Match Events
4'
4'
Fuente M.
40'
40'
Garces U.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
35%
37%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Eibar C
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
37%
/ Low Confidence
- Leioa have won more games recently than Eibar C.
- Model gives Eibar C a 37% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Leioa have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Leioa Clean Sheet 11%
Eibar C Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leioa | Eibar C |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 29 |
| Wins | 15 | 8 |
| Draws | 11 | 10 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.35 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.34 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Eibar C
2:1
Mar 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Eibar C
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Eibar C vs Leioa
0:1
May 10, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Eibar C vs Leioa
2:5
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Eibar C
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leioa Compare
Top Goalscorer Garces U.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Eibar C Compare
Top Goalscorer Fuente M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leioa 27 / 100
Eibar C 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leioa Eibar C
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Eibar C Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Eibar C let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Leioa scored in 79% of their last 34 games.
Leioa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Leioa VS Eibar C
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 83%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 33%
Recent Form & Match History
Leioa
(Home) 26 Sept
Leioa
2 : 1 Eibar C
20 Sept
Real Union B
3 : 3 Leioa
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1 Pasaia
09 Sept
Bergantinos
5 : 0 Leioa
05 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 1 Leioa
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
Leioa
2 : 1 Eibar C
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1 Pasaia
19 Aug
Leioa
1 : 1 Portugalete
18 Jul
Leioa
0 : 11 Ath Bilbao
13 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0 Albacete B
Page 1 of 4
Eibar C
(Away) 26 Sept
Leioa
2 : 1 Eibar C
19 Sept
Eibar C
3 : 1 SD Erandio
13 Sept
Sodupe
1 : 1 Eibar C
05 Sept
Eibar C
1 : 1 Alaves C
14 Aug
Eibar C
3 : 1 Santurtzi
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Leioa
2 : 1 Eibar C
13 Sept
Sodupe
1 : 1 Eibar C
03 May
Lagun Onak
1 : 1 Eibar C
17 Apr
Portugalete
4 : 2 Eibar C
01 Apr
Derio
2 : 2 Eibar C
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugalete | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 70:29 | 78 |
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50:34 | 61 |
| 3 | Derio | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54:40 | 58 |
| 4 | Lagun Onak | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 54:34 | 57 |
| 5 | Touring KE | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 47:35 | 57 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad C | 34 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 48:39 | 55 |
| 7 | San Ignacio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 37:27 | 55 |
| 8 | Aurrera de Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 42:41 | 54 |
| 9 | Alaves C | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57:40 | 53 |
| 10 | UD Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56:61 | 45 |
| 11 | SCD Durango | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 35:36 | 44 |
| 12 | Santurtzi | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 32:45 | 39 |
| 13 | Eibar C | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 44:53 | 36 |
| 14 | Pasaia | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26:46 | 36 |
| 15 | Anorga | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 37:59 | 34 |
| 16 | Zamudio | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 42:59 | 33 |
| 17 | Zarautz KE | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 30:60 | 30 |
| 18 | SD Deusto | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26:49 | 25 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
