Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leioa vs Zamudio

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Calderon E.
67' Event
Garces U.
89' Event
Nunez Abasolo I.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

Leioa in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leioa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Leioa
15%
Draws
26%
Zamudio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leioa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Low Confidence
  • Zamudio haven't matched Leioa's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Zamudio's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Leioa Clean Sheet 15%
Zamudio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leioa Zamudio
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 7
Draws 6 5
Losses 10 18
Goals Scored 1.31 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.47 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.54
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Zamudio
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zamudio vs Leioa
1:0
Apr 12, 2017 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Zamudio vs Leioa
0:1
Nov 19, 2016 Segunda RFEF - Group 2
Leioa vs Zamudio
2:2
Jan 12, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zamudio vs Leioa
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leioa Compare

Top Goalscorer Garces U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Zamudio Compare

Top Goalscorer Calderon E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.4
Avg xA / game 0.86

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leioa 19 / 100
Zamudio 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leioa Zamudio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zamudio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leioa scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Zamudio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Leioa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leioa VS Zamudio
1.5 Goals Scored 1.71
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 57%
38% Over 3.5 57%

Recent Form & Match History

Leioa

(Home)
18 Jul
Leioa
0 : 11
Ath Bilbao
21 Jun
Albacete B
2 : 0
Leioa
13 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Albacete B
06 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Derio
31 May
Derio
0 : 1
Leioa
Page 1 of 7

Zamudio

(Away)
09 May
UD Aretxabaleta
3 : 1
Zamudio
03 May
Zamudio
0 : 2
Zarautz KE
26 Apr
Zamudio
1 : 1
Santurtzi
16 Apr
Real Sociedad C
3 : 1
Zamudio
12 Apr
Zamudio
7 : 0
Pasaia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)