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Leiria U19 vs Benfica U19

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato Nacional U19
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Leiria U19 play Benfica U19 in the Campeonato Nacional U19. It looks like a close match. Recently, Leiria U19 averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Benfica U19 averaged 2.79 goals scored and 1.12 conceded. In past meetings, Leiria U19 won 0, Benfica U19 won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 10, 2026 ended 5:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Leiria U19 and 2.56 for Benfica U19. This points to a Benfica U19 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Leiria U19
24%
Draws
47%
Benfica U19
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Benfica U19

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Leiria U19 picked up more points recently compared to Benfica U19.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 2.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 91%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%
Leiria U19 Clean Sheet 10%
Benfica U19 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 82%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leiria U19 Benfica U19
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 12 22
Draws 8 8
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.63 2.79
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.12
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Campeonato Nacional U19
Benfica U19 vs Leiria U19
5:2
Mar 7, 2026 Campeonato Nacional U19
Leiria U19 vs Benfica U19
0:3
Dec 7, 2025 Campeonato Nacional U19
Benfica U19 vs Leiria U19
1:1
Aug 24, 2025 Campeonato Nacional U19
Leiria U19 vs Benfica U19
1:4
Nov 6, 2021 Campeonato Nacional U19
Benfica U19 vs Leiria U19
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leiria U19 Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Benfica U19 Compare

Top Goalscorer Umeh J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreira I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.73
Avg xA / game 1.67

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leiria U19 28 / 100
Benfica U19 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leiria U19 Benfica U19

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Benfica U19 or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +38%
4.76
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Leiria U19 attacking → ← attacking Benfica U19

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leiria U19 scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Benfica U19 let in goals in 62% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Leiria U19 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Benfica U19 lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 74
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 3.00
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63