Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leiria vs Maritimo

Portugal Portugal

Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Marcelo
22'
van der Gaag J.
24' Event
Butzke A.
Assist: Tejon M.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 game between Leiria and Maritimo finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maritimo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Leiria
30%
Draws
47%
Maritimo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maritimo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Medium Confidence
  • Maritimo carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Leiria Clean Sheet 68%
Maritimo Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leiria Maritimo
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 10 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 0.75 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Maritimo
1:2
Oct 30, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Maritimo vs Leiria
1:3
Feb 22, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Maritimo vs Leiria
1:2
Sep 29, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Leiria vs Maritimo
1:1
Mar 16, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Maritimo vs Leiria
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leiria Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Maritimo Compare

Top Goalscorer Butzke A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bouzaidi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leiria 41 / 100
Maritimo 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leiria Maritimo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leiria's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Maritimo has conceded goals in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Leiria went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leiria VS Maritimo
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Leiria

(Home)
28 Jul
Las Palmas
3 : 2
Leiria
15 Jul
Leiria
2 : 0
AD Marco 09
11 Jul
Leiria
0 : 1
Alverca
17 May
Leiria
2 : 2
Feirense
09 May
Vizela
1 : 0
Leiria
Page 1 of 6

Maritimo

(Away)
01 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0
Nacional
29 Jul
Maritimo
1 : 1
Estrela Calheta
25 Jul
Maritimo
0 : 0
Machico
22 Jul
Maritimo
2 : 0
Camacha
17 Jul
Maritimo
1 : 5
Leixoes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maritimo 34 20 6 8 50:29 66
2 Academico Viseu 34 17 8 9 58:33 59
3 Torreense 34 18 5 11 46:33 59
4 Vizela 34 14 9 11 39:40 51
5 FC Porto B 34 15 6 13 41:42 51
6 Leiria 34 13 11 10 52:46 50
7 Leixoes 34 15 5 14 46:55 50
8 Feirense 34 12 10 12 37:40 46
9 Chaves 34 13 6 15 42:40 45
10 Benfica B 34 11 11 12 43:44 44
11 FC Felgueiras 34 11 11 12 34:38 44
12 Lusitania FC 34 11 10 13 44:52 43
13 Sporting CP B 34 13 3 18 41:34 42
14 Penafiel 34 11 8 15 37:39 41
15 Portimonense 34 11 7 16 39:49 40
16 SC Farense 34 10 10 14 31:37 40
17 Pacos Ferreira 34 9 12 13 34:48 39
18 Oliveirense 34 8 10 16 34:49 34
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)