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Lens vs PSG

France France

Super Cup Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
1 - 0
FT
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Thauvin F.
Assist: Udol M.
39'
Antonio K.
43'
Toppmoller D.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Lens
15%
Draws
37%
PSG
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lens

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Lens's 2.31 goals per match outpaces what PSG have produced (2.14).
  • Win probability leans Lens's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor PSG, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and PSG have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Lens Clean Sheet 20%
PSG Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lens PSG
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 18
Draws 4 5
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 2.31 2.14
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Super Cup
Lens vs PSG
1:0
May 13, 2026 Ligue 1
Lens vs PSG
0:2
Sep 14, 2025 Ligue 1
PSG vs Lens
2:0
Jan 18, 2025 Ligue 1
Lens vs PSG
1:2
Dec 22, 2024 Coupe de France
Lens vs PSG
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lens Compare

Top Goalscorer Thauvin F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

PSG Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lens 67 / 100
PSG 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lens PSG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lens Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:4
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lens scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: PSG conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Lens remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lens VS PSG
2.13 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lens

(Home)
16 Aug
Lens
1 : 0
PSG
08 Aug
Lens
0 : 2
Sunderland
08 Aug
Lens
4 : 1
Sunderland
01 Aug
Lens
3 : 1
Villarreal
28 Jul
Lens
0 : 1
Famalicao
Page 1 of 6

PSG

(Away)
16 Aug
Lens
1 : 0
PSG
12 Aug
PSG
2 : 1
Aston Villa
08 Aug
PSG
1 : 1
Manchester United
05 Aug
Mallorca
3 : 0
PSG
30 May
PSG
2 : 1
Arsenal
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
PSG 0
Lens 1