Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lentigione vs Desenzano Calvina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lentigione play Desenzano Calvina in the Serie D - Group D. It looks like a close match. Recently, Lentigione averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. Desenzano Calvina averaged 1.63 goals scored and 0.57 conceded. In past meetings, Lentigione won 2, Desenzano Calvina won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 8, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.00 for Lentigione and 1.31 for Desenzano Calvina. This points to a Desenzano Calvina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Lentigione
28%
Draws
36%
Desenzano Calvina
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Desenzano Calvina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence
  • Lentigione picked up more points recently compared to Desenzano Calvina.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.00 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Lentigione Clean Sheet 18%
Desenzano Calvina Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lentigione Desenzano Calvina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 20
Draws 7 7
Losses 5 3
Goals Scored 1.5 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.77 0.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Lentigione vs Desenzano Calvina
0:0
Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs Lentigione
0:1
Apr 19, 2020 Serie D - Group D
Lentigione vs Desenzano Calvina
0:0
Dec 8, 2019 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs Lentigione
1:2
May 5, 2019 Serie D - Group D
Desenzano Calvina vs Lentigione
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lentigione 36 / 100
Desenzano Calvina 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lentigione Desenzano Calvina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Desenzano Calvina or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lentigione attacking → ← attacking Desenzano Calvina

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lentigione scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Desenzano Calvina let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Lentigione went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Desenzano Calvina lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

61 Points in last 5 67
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.50
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Desenzano Calvina34238360:2177
2Lentigione34227551:2373
3Pistoiese342011361:2271
4Piacenza34197860:3564
5Pro Palazzolo34169944:3157
6Pro Sesto341510945:3055
7Cittadella Vis Modena341510935:2955
8Rovato Vertovese3414101035:2952
9Sangiuliano City341481241:4547
10SCD Progresso341091538:4239
11Sant'Angelo341091538:5139
12Correggese349121335:3639
13Crema349111435:4738
14Imolese348101628:4734
15Sasso Marconi34871933:4931
16Tropical Coriano347101729:4531
17Trevigliese34582131:6223
18Tuttocuoio34082618:738