Sport Picks
Leones Negros vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara 
AI Match Summary
Leones Negros host Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Liga de Expansion MX. This one's hard to separate. Alebrijes de Oaxaca have shipped 1.9 goals a game lately, while Leones Negros have conceded 1.7 and scored 1.5. Past meetings favor Leones Negros slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 28, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.75 vs 1.19, favoring Leones Negros. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Form's been kind to Leones Negros lately — more wins on the board than Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
- Leones Negros are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leones Negros | Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 9 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.75 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alebrijes de Oaxaca let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.
Leones Negros's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Solid form: Leones Negros remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Leones Negros
(Home)Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28:15 | 23 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19:19 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 13 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:30 | 7 |
