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Leopards vs Mahia

Kenya Kenya

Premier League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Onyango A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Leopards and Mahia finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mahia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Leopards
15%
Draws
21%
Mahia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leopards

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Mahia haven't matched Leopards's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Leopards's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Leopards Clean Sheet 68%
Mahia Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leopards Mahia
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 17 14
Draws 2 5
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.35 1.41
Goals Conceded 0.77 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.67 0.79
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Premier League
Leopards vs Mahia
0:1
Dec 7, 2025 Premier League
Mahia vs Leopards
0:1
Jun 2, 2025 Premier League
Mahia vs Leopards
1:1
Mar 30, 2025 Premier League
Leopards vs Mahia
0:0
Apr 21, 2024 Premier League
Mahia vs Leopards
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leopards Compare

Avg xG / game 0.52
Avg xA / game 0.34

Mahia Compare

Top Goalscorer Onyango A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leopards 86 / 100
Mahia 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leopards Mahia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leopards Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leopards's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Defensive concern: Mahia conceded in 63% of 27 recent games.

Leopards has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Mahia has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Leopards VS Mahia
0.33 Goals Scored 1.25
0.33 Goals Conceded 1
17% Over 1.5 50%
17% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Leopards

(Home)
22 Aug
Leopards
1 : 0
Kampala City
31 May
Leopards
1 : 2
Bidco United
24 May
APS Bomet
2 : 1
Leopards
16 May
Kakamega Homeboyz
1 : 2
Leopards
13 May
Ulinzi Stars
0 : 2
Leopards
Page 1 of 6

Mahia

(Away)
13 Sept
Pyramids
5 : 1
Mahia
06 Sept
Mahia
0 : 2
Pyramids
23 Aug
Mahia
1 : 3
Tusker
07 Aug
Rayon Sport
2 : 1
Mahia
04 Aug
Mahia
2 : 1
Al-Hilal Omdurman
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mahia 34 20 9 5 50:22 69
2 Leopards 34 19 7 8 44:28 64
3 Police FC 34 13 16 5 31:21 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 35:34 52
6 Kakamega Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 47:37 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 36:37 48
8 Muranga 34 13 8 13 42:41 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 27:32 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 37:35 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 30:30 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 26:26 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 34:37 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 31:35 41
15 Posta Rangers 34 9 13 12 31:40 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 30:33 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 19:40 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19:51 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Super League 2026/2027 (Main)