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Lesotho vs Kenya

World World

Friendly International Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium, Pretoria
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Motebang S.
12' Event
Odhiambo F.
22'
Odada R.

AI Match Summary

The Friendly International game between Lesotho and Kenya finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Lesotho
30%
Draws
41%
Kenya
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Kenya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kenya come out ahead of Lesotho on wins alone.
  • Kenya are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Lesotho Clean Sheet 23%
Kenya Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lesotho Kenya
Matches Played 30 25
Wins 8 10
Draws 7 6
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.67 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2026 Friendly International
Kenya vs Lesotho
4:0
Jun 4, 2026 Friendly International
Lesotho vs Kenya
1:1
Aug 3, 2014 Africa Cup of Nations
Kenya vs Lesotho
0:0
Jul 20, 2014 Africa Cup of Nations
Lesotho vs Kenya
1:0
Jul 8, 2013 COSAFA Cup
Kenya vs Lesotho
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lesotho Compare

Top Goalscorer Makhele T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Kenya Compare

Top Goalscorer Odhiambo F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lesotho 10 / 100
Kenya 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lesotho Kenya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kenya Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Lesotho remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Lesotho's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Kenya's defensive record shows goals conceded in 56% of 25 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lesotho VS Kenya
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lesotho

(Home)
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
29 Mar
Lesotho
2 : 1
Seychelles
26 Mar
Seychelles
0 : 0
Lesotho
18 Nov
Lesotho
0 : 1
Malawi
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Kenya

(Away)
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
30 Mar
Grenada
0 : 3
Kenya
27 Mar
Kenya
1 : 2
Estonia
18 Nov
Senegal
8 : 0
Kenya
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