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Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna

Bulgaria Bulgaria

efbet League Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov, Sofia
Sat, Aug 22, 2026
VS
06:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Levski Sofia host Spartak Varna in the efbet League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Levski Sofia have averaged 1.97 scored and 0.61 conceded recently, against Spartak Varna's 1.36 scored and 1.39 conceded. Past meetings favor Levski Sofia slightly — 3-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Dec 7, 2025, ending 1:3. Model xG sits at 1.63 vs 1.31, favoring Levski Sofia. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Levski Sofia
20%
Draws
35%
Spartak Varna
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Levski Sofia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Levski Sofia come out ahead of Spartak Varna on wins alone.
  • Model gives Levski Sofia a 45% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Levski Sofia Clean Sheet 18%
Spartak Varna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Levski Sofia Spartak Varna
Matches Played 33 28
Wins 23 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 2 10
Goals Scored 1.97 1.36
Goals Conceded 0.61 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 7, 2025 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Levski Sofia
1:3
Aug 10, 2025 efbet League
Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna
2:1
Feb 21, 2025 efbet League
Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna
2:0
Aug 31, 2024 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Levski Sofia
0:0
Nov 6, 2022 efbet League
Spartak Varna vs Levski Sofia
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Levski Sofia 58 / 100
Spartak Varna 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Levski Sofia Spartak Varna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Levski Sofia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Levski Sofia scored in 88% of their last 33 games.

Recent resilience: Levski Sofia stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Spartak Varna's defensive record shows goals conceded in 68% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Levski Sofia VS Spartak Varna
2 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Levski Sofia

(Home)
11 Aug
Kairat Almaty
0 : 1
Levski Sofia
07 Aug
Levski Sofia
2 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
04 Aug
Levski Sofia
1 : 0
Kairat Almaty
01 Aug
Levski Sofia
3 : 0
Septemvri Sofia
29 Jul
Univ. Craiova
2 : 2
Levski Sofia
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Spartak Varna

(Away)
10 Aug
Botev Plovdiv
3 : 2
Spartak Varna
03 Aug
Spartak Varna
1 : 0
Lok. Plovdiv
26 Jul
Cherno More
0 : 3
Spartak Varna
17 Jul
Spartak Varna
2 : 2
CSKA 1948 Sofia
11 Jul
Spartak Varna
7 : 3
Dobrudzha
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levski Sofia 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
2 Ludogorets 4 4 0 0 8:3 12
3 CSKA Sofia 4 3 1 0 8:3 10
4 CSKA 1948 Sofia 4 3 1 0 9:5 10
5 Botev Plovdiv 4 2 1 1 7:6 7
6 Arda 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
7 Spartak Varna 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
8 Slavia Sofia 4 1 2 1 4:2 5
9 Lok. Plovdiv 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
10 Lok. Sofia 4 0 2 2 4:7 2
11 Cherno More 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
12 Botev Vratsa 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
13 Septemvri Sofia 4 0 1 3 2:9 1
14 Dunav Ruse 4 0 0 4 2:8 0
Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)
Relegation - efbet League (Relegation Group)