Sport Picks
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Toyota Stadium, Georgetown, KY 
Match Events
16'
16'
Goodrum P.
37'
37'
Ofeimu B.
51'
51'
Nick Firmino
Assist: Ferri B.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Lexington and Las Vegas Lights finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lexington.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
61%
20%
19%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lexington
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ High Confidence
- Las Vegas Lights haven't matched Lexington's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Lexington's way, sitting at 90%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Lexington Clean Sheet 20%
Las Vegas Lights Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lexington | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 10 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1.3 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.94 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 18, 2026 USL Championship
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington
3:5
Aug 22, 2026 USL Championship
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights
2:0
May 3, 2026 USL Championship
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington
2:1
Aug 31, 2025 USL Championship
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington
1:0
Apr 12, 2025 USL Championship
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lexington Compare
Top Goalscorer Nick Firmino
1 Goals Assists Leader Epps M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97
Las Vegas Lights Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lexington 85 / 100
Las Vegas Lights 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lexington Las Vegas Lights
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lexington Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Solid form: Lexington remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Attacking prowess: Lexington scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.
Las Vegas Lights let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Lexington VS Las Vegas Lights
2.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Lexington
(Home) 18 Oct
Las Vegas Lights
3 : 5 Lexington
09 Oct
Lexington
0 : 0 FC Tulsa
03 Oct
Lexington
3 : 1 El Paso Locomotive
27 Sept
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Lexington
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Lexington
0 : 0 FC Tulsa
03 Oct
Lexington
3 : 1 El Paso Locomotive
19 Sept
Lexington
6 : 0 Orange County SC
29 Aug
Lexington
0 : 1 Colorado Springs
22 Aug
Lexington
2 : 0 Las Vegas Lights
Page 1 of 3
Las Vegas Lights
(Away) 18 Oct
Las Vegas Lights
3 : 5 Lexington
11 Oct
Phoenix Rising
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
04 Oct
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 0 San Antonio FC
01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
20 Sept
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 1 Hartford Athletic
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
Phoenix Rising
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
13 Sept
Orange County SC
0 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
22 Aug
Lexington
2 : 0 Las Vegas Lights
08 Aug
Miami FC
0 : 1 Las Vegas Lights
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League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 29 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 50:26 | 58 |
| 2 | Charleston | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 55:35 | 50 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 34:21 | 50 |
| 4 | Louisville City | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 51:43 | 46 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 41:31 | 42 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 31:29 | 42 |
| 7 | Hartford Athletic | 29 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 33:32 | 40 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 39:49 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 35:40 | 34 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 29 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 39:44 | 30 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 29 | 5 | 13 | 11 | 34:45 | 28 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 31:59 | 21 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 29 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 32:76 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 48:37 | 50 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 44:34 | 49 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 39:26 | 48 |
| 4 | Lexington | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 54:36 | 47 |
| 5 | Colorado Springs | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 42:38 | 44 |
| 6 | FC Tulsa | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 34:29 | 43 |
| 7 | San Antonio FC | 29 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 30:29 | 42 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 42:43 | 39 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38:47 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 37:37 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 40:46 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 30:51 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
