Sport Picks
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights
USA
USL Championship Toyota Stadium, Georgetown, KY 
Match Events
16'
16'
Goodrum P.
37'
37'
Ofeimu B.
51'
51'
Nick Firmino
Assist: Ferri B.
AI Match Summary
The USL Championship game between Lexington and Las Vegas Lights finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lexington.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
15%
46%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Las Vegas Lights
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Las Vegas Lights haven't matched Lexington's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Lexington's way, sitting at 40%.
- European nights carry their own weight — this USL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Lexington Clean Sheet 18%
Las Vegas Lights Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lexington | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 11 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 14 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.61 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.42 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 22, 2026 USL Championship
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights
2:0
May 3, 2026 USL Championship
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington
2:1
Aug 31, 2025 USL Championship
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington
1:0
Apr 12, 2025 USL Championship
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lexington Compare
Top Goalscorer Nick Firmino
1 Goals Assists Leader Epps M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Las Vegas Lights Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lexington 40 / 100
Las Vegas Lights 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lexington Las Vegas Lights
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lexington Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lexington found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).
Las Vegas Lights has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 1.50 goals.
Solid form: Lexington remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Lexington VS Las Vegas Lights
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Lexington
(Home) 29 Aug
Lexington
0 : 1 Colorado Springs
27 Aug
New Mexico
2 : 1 Lexington
22 Aug
Lexington
2 : 0 Las Vegas Lights
16 Aug
Sacramento Republic
1 : 0 Lexington
08 Aug
Lexington
1 : 0 Phoenix Rising
Page 1 of 7
29 Aug
Lexington
0 : 1 Colorado Springs
22 Aug
Lexington
2 : 0 Las Vegas Lights
08 Aug
Lexington
1 : 0 Phoenix Rising
01 Aug
Lexington
3 : 2 Monterey Bay
22 Jul
Lexington
2 : 0 Oakland Roots
Page 1 of 4
Las Vegas Lights
(Away) 30 Aug
Las Vegas Lights
0 : 2 Charleston
22 Aug
Lexington
2 : 0 Las Vegas Lights
16 Aug
Las Vegas Lights
2 : 1 Brooklyn FC
08 Aug
Miami FC
0 : 1 Las Vegas Lights
06 Aug
Las Vegas Lights
0 : 0 Oakland Roots
Page 1 of 6
22 Aug
Lexington
2 : 0 Las Vegas Lights
08 Aug
Miami FC
0 : 1 Las Vegas Lights
25 Jul
Detroit City
0 : 1 Las Vegas Lights
19 Jul
San Antonio FC
1 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
12 Jul
Monterey Bay
2 : 3 Las Vegas Lights
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 38:20 | 45 |
| 2 | Charleston | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 46:27 | 39 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 27:17 | 36 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 25:23 | 34 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 37:36 | 32 |
| 6 | Rhode Island | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 30:23 | 28 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 24:24 | 28 |
| 8 | Hartford Athletic | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 18:20 | 27 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 25:39 | 22 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 22:34 | 20 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 24:30 | 17 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 22:36 | 16 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 22 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 27:58 | 11 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 39:29 | 40 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 29:20 | 37 |
| 3 | FC Tulsa | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26:19 | 35 |
| 4 | Orange County SC | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 33:31 | 35 |
| 5 | San Antonio FC | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 28:26 | 35 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 28:19 | 32 |
| 7 | Lexington | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31:26 | 31 |
| 8 | Colorado Springs | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 33:32 | 31 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 28:32 | 29 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 31:30 | 29 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 28:31 | 27 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 24:41 | 17 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
