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Lexington W vs Carolina Ascent W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

USL Super League Women Toyota Stadium, Georgetown, KY
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Match Events

35'
Corbin M.
38'
Steigleder R.
54'
Weinert M.

AI Match Summary

Carolina Ascent W in this USL Super League Women matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Carolina Ascent W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Lexington W
20%
Draws
47%
Carolina Ascent W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Carolina Ascent W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Carolina Ascent W have won more games recently than Lexington W.
  • Model gives Lexington W a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Lexington W Clean Sheet 20%
Carolina Ascent W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lexington W Carolina Ascent W
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 16 19
Draws 7 3
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.68 1.34
Goals Conceded 0.82 0.72
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Carolina Ascent W
0:1
May 30, 2026 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Carolina Ascent W
3:1
Apr 11, 2026 USL Super League Women
Carolina Ascent W vs Lexington W
1:0
Feb 7, 2026 USL Super League Women
Carolina Ascent W vs Lexington W
1:2
Oct 10, 2025 USL Super League Women
Lexington W vs Carolina Ascent W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lexington W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Carolina Ascent W Compare

Top Goalscorer Butler J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lexington W 36 / 100
Carolina Ascent W 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lexington W Carolina Ascent W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lexington W found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Lexington W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Carolina Ascent W let in goals in 48% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lexington W VS Carolina Ascent W
1.75 Goals Scored 1.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lexington W

(Home)
04 Oct
Tampa Bay Sun W
1 : 1
Lexington W
25 Sept
Lexington W
3 : 0
Dallas Trinity W
20 Sept
Sporting Jax W
0 : 1
Lexington W
11 Sept
Lexington W
0 : 1
Carolina Ascent W
29 Aug
Lexington W
1 : 2
DC Power W
Page 1 of 6

Carolina Ascent W

(Away)
26 Sept
Carolina Ascent W
3 : 3
Sporting Jax W
19 Sept
Carolina Ascent W
1 : 0
Brooklyn W
11 Sept
Lexington W
0 : 1
Carolina Ascent W
05 Sept
Carolina Ascent W
3 : 0
Fort Lauderdale United W
29 Aug
Carolina Ascent W
1 : 2
Tampa Bay Sun W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Carolina Ascent W 8 6 1 1 16:6 19
2 Sporting Jax W 7 3 2 2 12:10 11
3 Dallas Trinity W 8 3 2 3 10:12 11
4 DC Power W 7 3 2 2 11:8 11
5 Lexington W 6 3 1 2 9:4 10
6 Tampa Bay Sun W 7 2 3 2 9:11 9
7 Brooklyn W 8 2 1 5 6:15 7
8 Fort Lauderdale United W 7 1 0 6 4:11 3
Promotion - USL Super League Women (Play Offs)