Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Liberia vs Alajuelense

Costa Rica Costa Rica

Copa Costa Rica Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceno, Liberia
Liberia Logo

Liberia

3 - 1
FT
Alajuelense Logo

Alajuelense

Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Vargas K.
35' Event
Hernandez A.
46'
Sub
Bonilla K. In: Brown M.
Out: Bonilla K.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Liberia
15%
Draws
51%
Alajuelense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Alajuelense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Liberia haven't matched Alajuelense's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Alajuelense a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Alajuelense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Liberia, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Liberia Clean Sheet 16%
Alajuelense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Liberia Alajuelense
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 13 14
Draws 7 8
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Primera Division
Liberia vs Alajuelense
2:1
Feb 11, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Liberia vs Alajuelense
3:1
Feb 4, 2026 Copa Costa Rica
Alajuelense vs Liberia
0:1
Jan 16, 2026 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Liberia
2:2
Dec 14, 2025 Primera Division
Alajuelense vs Liberia
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Liberia Compare

Top Goalscorer Hernandez A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Reyes C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Alajuelense Compare

Top Goalscorer Vargas K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Liberia 23 / 100
Alajuelense 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Liberia Alajuelense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Alajuelense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Liberia scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Alajuelense has conceded goals in 75% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Liberia remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Liberia VS Alajuelense
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Liberia

(Home)
10 May
Saprissa
2 : 0
Liberia
03 May
Liberia
1 : 1
Saprissa
26 Apr
Liberia
2 : 1
Alajuelense
22 Apr
Sporting FC
0 : 1
Liberia
18 Apr
Liberia
1 : 0
Cartagines
Page 1 of 6

Alajuelense

(Away)
15 Aug
Alajuelense
2 : 1
Puntarenas FC
10 Aug
Herediano
0 : 3
Alajuelense
05 Aug
Diriangen
1 : 3
Alajuelense
02 Aug
Alajuelense
2 : 1
Escorpiones
30 Jul
Alajuelense
1 : 0
Xelaju
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Alajuelense -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
ADR Cobano 4
Liberia 8
AD Rosario 1
ADR Jicaral 3
Saprissa -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Inter San Carlos 1
Carmelita 3
San Carlos 1
Cariari Pococi 2
Herediano -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quepos FC 2
Zeledon 5
Escorpiones 3
Puntarenas FC 4
Sporting FC 3
CS Uruguay 0
Aserri 5
Guadalupe 6
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Cartagines -
1/8-finals
Alajuelense -
TBD -
Liberia 1
ADR Jicaral 0
Saprissa -
TBD -
Carmelita 3
Cariari Pococi 1
Herediano -
TBD -
Zeledon 1
Puntarenas FC 2
Sporting FC 7
Guadalupe 2
TBD -
Cartagines -
Quarter-finals
Alajuelense 1
Liberia 4
Saprissa 10
Carmelita 2
Herediano 1
Puntarenas FC 3
Sporting FC 6
Cartagines 2
Semi-finals
Liberia 2
Saprissa 6
Puntarenas FC 2
Sporting FC 3
Final
Saprissa 3
Sporting FC 1